After a near-steady selloff for more than a month, Treasuries are rallying this morning following a downside surprise in core CPI.
Headline CPI rose 0.4% m/m, as expected, but excluding food and energy prices, (core) CPI cooled slightly to 0.2% m/m in December after consecutive 0.3% m/m increases following the mid-summer softness. On a year-over-year basis, the headline rate ticked up to 2.9%, and the core rate ticked down to 3.2%. Today’s report comes at a good time for markets still reeling from a hawkish December Fed meeting and a very strong December jobs report. It’s not a “mission accomplished” moment on inflation by any means, but it perhaps allays some worries. Treasury yields are currently down 9-14 basis points across the curve in the immediate reaction, with the belly of the curve rallying the most.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 1/15/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 33.30% | -3.70% | — |
| 1/15/2025 | Empire Manufacturing | 3 | -12.6 | 0.2 | 2.1 |
| 1/15/2025 | CPI MoM | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.30% | — |
| 1/15/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.30% | — |
| 1/15/2025 | CPI YoY | 2.90% | 2.90% | 2.70% | — |
| 1/15/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.30% | 3.20% | 3.30% | — |
| 1/15/2025 | CPI Index NSA | 315.616 | 315.605 | 315.493 | — |
| 1/15/2025 | CPI Core Index SA | 323.4 | 323.383 | 322.657 | — |
| 1/15/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.70% | 1.00% | 0.90% |
| 1/15/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 1.00% | 1.30% | — |
| 1/15/2025 | Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 1/16/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | -5 | — | -16.4 | -10.9 |
| 1/16/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | 2.10% | — | 1.30% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | 1.60% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -5.2 | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 210k | — | 201k | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1872k | — | 1867k | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Business Inventories | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 45 | — | 46 | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Housing Starts | 1328k | — | 1289k | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | 3.10% | — | -1.80% | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Building Permits | 1460k | — | 1493k | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Building Permits MoM | -2.20% | — | 5.20% | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 77.00% | — | 76.80% | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $152.3b | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $203.6b | — |
| 1/21/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -6 | — |
| 1/22/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 33.30% | — |
| 1/22/2025 | Leading Index | -0.10% | — | 0.30% | — |
