Treasury yields are drifting higher as the market reacts to a basket of data releases.
Retail sales were lower than expected in December, at least at the headline level, but the control group used in the GDP calculation was nearly double expectations at 0.7% m/m. In a separate report, import price inflation exceeded expectations, and initial jobless claims rose more than expected to 217,000 last week. Yesterday’s CPI report fueled a 10-15 basis point increase in yields across the curve in what could be described as a sense of relief for a market anxious about a reemergence of inflation risks in 2025. It’s only one report, but it came at an opportune time just days after a strong December jobs report.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 1/16/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | -5 | 44.3 | -16.4 | -10.9 |
| 1/16/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.60% | 0.40% | 0.70% | 0.80% |
| 1/16/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.50% | 0.40% | 0.20% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.20% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 0.70% | 0.40% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.10% | 0.20% | 0.20% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | 2.10% | 2.20% | 1.30% | 1.40% |
| 1/16/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.00% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | 1.60% | 1.80% | 0.80% | 0.90% |
| 1/16/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | -5.6 | -5.2 | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 210k | 217k | 201k | 203k |
| 1/16/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1870k | 1859k | 1867k | 1877k |
| 1/16/2025 | Business Inventories | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 45 | — | 46 | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Housing Starts | 1327k | — | 1289k | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | 3.00% | — | -1.80% | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Building Permits | 1460k | — | 1493k | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Building Permits MoM | -2.20% | — | 5.20% | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 77.00% | — | 76.80% | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $152.3b | — |
| 1/17/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $203.6b | — |
| 1/21/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -6 | — |
| 1/22/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 33.30% | — |
| 1/22/2025 | Leading Index | -0.10% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/23/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 217k | — |
| 1/23/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1859k | — |
| 1/23/2025 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -4 | — |
