Yields are up across the curve and the slope flatter with the 2-year up 11 bps and the 10yr up 5 bps following today’s retail sales number.
US retail sales came in higher than expected at +0.6% vs the median forecast of +0.4%. December’s print was the largest m/m change in three months. The control group which excludes spending on food services, autos, building materials, and gas rose 0.8%, the largest increase since July. Today’s release is another data point highlighting the strength of US consumers which should give the Fed more confidence to delay any rate cuts until after March.
Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 01/17/24 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 10.40% | 9.90% | — |
| 01/17/24 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | -9.7 | -14.6 | — |
| 01/17/24 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.40% | 0.60% | 0.30% | — |
| 01/17/24 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.20% | — |
| 01/17/24 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | 0.60% | 0.60% | — |
| 01/17/24 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.20% | 0.80% | 0.40% | 0.50% |
| 01/17/24 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.50% | 0.00% | -0.40% | -0.50% |
| 01/17/24 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.20% | — |
| 01/17/24 | Import Price Index YoY | -2.00% | -1.60% | -1.40% | -1.50% |
| 01/17/24 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.70% | -0.90% | -0.90% | — |
| 01/17/24 | Export Price Index YoY | — | -3.20% | -5.20% | — |
| 01/17/24 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 01/17/24 | Capacity Utilization | 78.70% | — | 78.80% | — |
| 01/17/24 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.00% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 01/17/24 | Business Inventories | -0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 01/17/24 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 39 | — | 37 | — |
| 01/17/24 | Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 01/18/24 | Housing Starts | 1425k | — | 1560k | — |
| 01/18/24 | Building Permits | 1477k | — | 1460k | 1467k |
| 01/18/24 | Housing Starts MoM | -8.70% | — | 14.80% | — |
| 01/18/24 | Building Permits MoM | 0.70% | — | -2.50% | -2.10% |
| 01/18/24 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | -6.5 | — | -10.5 | -12.8 |
| 01/18/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 205k | — | 202k | — |
| 01/18/24 | Continuing Claims | 1843k | — | 1834k | — |
| 01/19/24 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 70.1 | — | 69.7 | — |
| 01/19/24 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 66.6 | — | 67.4 | — |
| 01/19/24 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 73 | — | 73.3 | — |
| 01/19/24 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.10% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 01/19/24 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.00% | — | 2.90% | — |
| 01/19/24 | Existing Home Sales | 3.83m | — | 3.82m | — |
| 01/19/24 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 01/19/24 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$83.8b | — |
| 01/19/24 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $3.3b | — |
