Treasuries are little changed to start the day following a quiet overnight session.
Congress was able to avoid a government shutdown (for now), agreeing to a short-term spending package that will expire on March 8. In the U.K., retail sales fell 3.2% in December, increasing the likelihood that the country’s economy entered recession territory in Q4. Later this morning, the preliminary results of the January University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will be released, as will December existing home sales data. Next week, we will get the first look at Q4 GDP numbers and the December PCE report.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 1/19/2024 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 70.1 | — | 69.7 | — |
| 1/19/2024 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 67 | — | 67.4 | — |
| 1/19/2024 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 73 | — | 73.3 | — |
| 1/19/2024 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.10% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 1/19/2024 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.00% | — | 2.90% | — |
| 1/19/2024 | Existing Home Sales | 3.83m | — | 3.82m | — |
| 1/19/2024 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 1/19/2024 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$83.8b | — |
| 1/19/2024 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $3.3b | — |
| 1/22/2024 | Leading Index | -0.30% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 1/23/2024 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | 6.3 | — |
| 1/23/2024 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -11 | — |
| 1/23/2024 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | 0 | — |
| 1/24/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 10.40% | — |
| 1/24/2024 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 47.7 | — | 47.9 | — |
| 1/24/2024 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 51 | — | 51.4 | — |
| 1/24/2024 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 50.9 | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | 0.03 | — |
| 1/25/2024 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.00% | — | 4.90% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Personal Consumption | 2.40% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | GDP Price Index | 2.30% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$88.5b | — | -$90.3b | -$89.3b |
| 1/25/2024 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.00% | — | 5.40% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | -0.10% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 200k | — | 187k | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1806k | — |
| 1/25/2024 | New Home Sales MoM | 10.20% | — | -12.20% | — |
| 1/25/2024 | New Home Sales | 650k | — | 590k | — |
| 1/25/2024 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -1 | — |
| 1/26/2024 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/26/2024 | Personal Spending | 0.40% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 1/26/2024 | Real Personal Spending | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/26/2024 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 1/26/2024 | PCE Deflator YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 1/26/2024 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 1/26/2024 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 3.00% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 1/26/2024 | Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 1/26/2024 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.50% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 1/26/2024 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -5.10% | — |
| 1/26/2024 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | -10 | — |
