Global bonds and U.S. equity futures are selling off in the first early trading session of 2024.
In the wake of the bull run in risk assets over the last 2 months, traders appear to be tapping the breaks. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index returned nearly 10% in November and December, it’s best 2-month run on record (dating back to 1990). Not to be outdone, the S&P 500 returned investors over 13.5% over the same period. General market consensus has pointed to central bankers ending their fight against decades-high inflation, with roughly 150 basis points of cuts anticipated over 2024 from the Federal Reserve as of this writing. The prospect of a “soft landing” behind a resilient labor market is in view for investors this year, but whether policymakers can accomplish that has yet to be seen.
This week will kick-off the year with several data points to digest, however. Beginning with the FOMC minutes release on Wednesday (1/3), followed by U.S. jobless claims Thursday (1/4), and non-farm payrolls Friday (1/5). Happy New Year!
Michael Oravetz
Senior Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 1/2/2024 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 48.4 | — | 48.2 | — |
| 1/2/2024 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 1/3/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | — | — |
| 1/3/2024 | ISM Manufacturing | 47.2 | — | 46.7 | — |
| 1/3/2024 | ISM Prices Paid | — | — | 49.9 | — |
| 1/3/2024 | ISM Employment | — | — | 45.8 | — |
| 1/3/2024 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 48.3 | — |
| 1/3/2024 | JOLTS Job Openings | 8850k | — | 8733k | — |
| 1/3/2024 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 1/3/2024 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.50m | — | 15.32m | — |
| 1/4/2024 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -40.80% | — |
| 1/4/2024 | ADP Employment Change | 115k | — | 103k | — |
| 1/4/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | — | 218k | — |
| 1/4/2024 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1875k | — |
| 1/4/2024 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 51.3 | — | 51.3 | — |
| 1/4/2024 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 51 | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Revisions: Household Survey Data | ||||
| 1/5/2024 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -35k | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 170k | — | 199k | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Change in Private Payrolls | 130k | — | 150k | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 5k | — | 28k | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | — | 3.70% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.90% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | — | 34.4 | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.80% | — | 62.80% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.00% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Factory Orders | 2.20% | — | -3.60% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | -1.20% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 5.40% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | ISM Services Index | 52.5 | — | 52.7 | — |
| 1/5/2024 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 58.3 | — |
| 1/5/2024 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 50.7 | — |
| 1/5/2024 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 55.5 | — |
