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Author Jason Haley

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It’s a relatively quiet start to the day across financial markets.

Both Treasuries and equity futures are little changed with no major headlines driving activity. Yesterday’s labor market and consumer spending data were better than expected, with lower market expectations for Fed rate cuts on the margin. As it currently stands, fed funds futures are pricing no chance of a rate cut next week, and the first full 25-basis point cut for 2026 is currently priced in the June/July timeframe. Later this morning, the January S&P PMI report will provide a fresh look at activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, and an updated January University of Michigan consumer sentiment report will be released shortly thereafter.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date EventSurveyActualPrior
1/23/2026Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey   
1/23/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52     —51.8
1/23/2026S&P Global US Services PMI52.9     —52.5
1/23/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI53     —52.7
1/23/2026Leading Index-0.20%     —     —
1/23/2026Conference Board Releases Oct. and Nov. Leading Index Data   
1/23/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment54     —54
1/23/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions52.3     —52.4
1/23/2026U. of Mich. Expectations55     —55
1/23/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.20%     —4.20%
1/23/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.40%
1/23/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity3     —3
1/26/2026Chicago Fed to Release Oct. and Nov. National Activity Index   
1/26/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —-0.21
1/26/2026Durable Goods Orders3.00%     —-2.20%
1/26/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.30%     —0.10%
1/26/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.30%     —0.50%
1/26/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.80%
1/26/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-10.9
1/27/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —8.000k
1/27/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —0.40%
1/27/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA0.20%     —0.32%
1/27/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA1.20%     —1.31%
1/27/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.36%
1/27/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-7
1/27/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-11
1/27/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence90     —89.1
1/27/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —116.8
1/27/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —70.7
1/27/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-3.3
1/28/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —14.10%
1/28/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —3.75%
1/28/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.50%
1/28/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate     —     —3.65%
1/28/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —3.50%
1/29/2026Nonfarm Productivity4.90%     —4.90%
1/29/2026Unit Labor Costs-1.90%     —-1.90%
1/29/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —200k
1/29/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —201.50k
1/29/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1849k
1/29/2026Trade Balance-$45.0b     —-$29.4b
1/29/2026Exports MoM     —     —2.60%
1/29/2026Imports MoM     —     —-3.20%
1/29/2026Factory Orders0.50%     —-1.30%
1/29/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —-0.20%
1/29/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —     —
1/29/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —     —
1/29/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
1/29/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
1/29/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.20%
1/29/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —-0.40%
1/30/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%     —0.20%
1/30/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.00%
1/30/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —0.20%
1/30/2026PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —3.00%
1/30/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —3.00%
1/30/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —3.50%
1/30/2026MNI Chicago PMI44     —43.5

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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