Author Jason Haley
Published January 26, 2024
Estimated
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation fell below 3% for the first time since March 2021. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.9% y/y in December, slightly below expectations of a 3% rate. GDP growth exceeded expectations by 130 basis points (bps) in Q4, rising 3.3% q/q (annualized). Personal income was in line with expectations, rising 0.3% in December, but spending surprised to the upside, rising 0.7%. The market response to the data has been fairly muted ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting and jobs report.
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised 01/26/24 Personal Income 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% — 01/26/24 Personal Spending 0.50% 0.70% 0.20% 0.40% 01/26/24 Real Personal Spending 0.30% 0.50% 0.30% 0.50% 01/26/24 PCE Deflator MoM 0.20% 0.20% -0.10% — 01/26/24 PCE Deflator YoY 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% — 01/26/24 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% — 01/26/24 PCE Core Deflator YoY 3.00% 2.90% 3.20% — 01/26/24 Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey 01/26/24 Pending Home Sales MoM 2.00% — 0.00% — 01/26/24 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -4.30% — -5.10% — 01/26/24 Kansas City Fed Services Activity — — -10 —
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
LinkedIn
ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.
Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.
Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.
