The emergence of a low-cost Chinese AI model sent U.S. tech stocks sharply overnight and is fueling a risk-off move in Treasuries (yields 7-10 bps lower).
Chinese startup DeepSeek launched a free AI assistant that it says uses less data at a fraction of the cost of other large players in the space. Shares of AI chip producer Nvidia were down more than 10% in pre-market trading. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, which is expected to result in no change to the fed funds target range, and the first look at Q4 GDP on Thursday. December personal income/spending and PCE will be released on Friday.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 1/27/2025 | Building Permits | — | 1482k | 1483k | — |
| 1/27/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | -0.70% | -0.70% | — |
| 1/27/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -0.06 | 0.15 | -0.12 | -0.01 |
| 1/27/2025 | New Home Sales | 672k | — | 664k | — |
| 1/27/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | 2.40% | — | 5.90% | — |
| 1/27/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | -3 | — | 3.4 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.50% | — | -1.20% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.40% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.30% | — | 0.32% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 4.25% | — | 4.22% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 3.60% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | 9.6 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 105.6 | — | 104.7 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 140.2 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 81.1 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | -12 | — | -10 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | 14 | — |
| 1/29/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 1/29/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$105.0b | — | -$102.9b | — |
| 1/29/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 1/29/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/29/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 4.50% | — | 4.50% | — |
| 1/29/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 4.25% | — | 4.25% | — |
| 1/29/2025 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 4.40% | — | 4.40% | — |
| 1/30/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.70% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 1/30/2025 | Personal Consumption | 3.20% | — | 3.70% | — |
| 1/30/2025 | GDP Price Index | 2.50% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 1/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 2.50% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 1/30/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 223k | — |
| 1/30/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1910k | — | 1899k | — |
| 1/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -0.50% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 1/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | 5.60% | — |
| 1/31/2025 | Employment Cost Index | 0.90% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 1/31/2025 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/31/2025 | Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/31/2025 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/31/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 1/31/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 1/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 1/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.80% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 1/31/2025 | MNI Chicago PMI | 40 | — | 36.9 | — |
| 2/3/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 50.1 | — |
| 2/3/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 2/3/2025 | ISM Manufacturing | 48.9 | — | 49.3 | — |
| 2/3/2025 | ISM Prices Paid | — | — | 52.5 | — |
| 2/3/2025 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 52.5 | — |
| 2/3/2025 | ISM Employment | — | — | 45.3 | — |
| 2/3/2025 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.40m | — | 16.80m | — |
