Treasury yields have reversed course following yesterday’s rally with the curve higher and steeper.
The 2-year is up 2 bps while the 10-year is up 3 bps. The NASDAQ has also retraced yesterday’s move slightly, up 0.1% in premarket trading. Nvidia, which saw a 17% drop yesterday, is up 4% ahead of the open.
Durable goods orders, items meant to last at least 3 years, fell by 2.2% last month due to a large drop in aircraft orders. The median forecast called for a 0.6% increase. Core capital goods, which excludes the volatile aircraft and military hardware segments, rose by 0.5%. Some of the increase in December seems to have been driven by buyers trying to get ahead of tariffs, as some of the selling firms noted.
Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 01/28/25 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.60% | -2.20% | -1.20% |
| 01/28/25 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.30% | 0.30% | -0.20% |
| 01/28/25 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.40% |
| 01/28/25 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | 0.60% | 0.30% |
| 01/28/25 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% |
| 01/28/25 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.30% | — | 0.32% |
| 01/28/25 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 4.24% | — | 4.22% |
| 01/28/25 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 3.60% |
| 01/28/25 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 105.9 | — | 104.7 |
| 01/28/25 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 140.2 |
| 01/28/25 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 81.1 |
| 01/28/25 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | -10 | — | -10 |
| 01/28/25 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | 14 |
| 01/28/25 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | 9.6 |
| 01/29/25 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.10% |
| 01/29/25 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$105.5b | — | -$102.9b |
| 01/29/25 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.20% |
| 01/29/25 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% |
| 01/29/25 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 4.50% | — | 4.50% |
| 01/29/25 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 4.25% | — | 4.25% |
| 01/29/25 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 4.40% | — | 4.40% |
| 01/30/25 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.70% | — | 3.10% |
| 01/30/25 | Personal Consumption | 3.20% | — | 3.70% |
| 01/30/25 | GDP Price Index | 2.50% | — | 1.90% |
| 01/30/25 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 2.50% | — | 2.20% |
| 01/30/25 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 223k |
| 01/30/25 | Continuing Claims | 1899k | — | 1899k |
| 01/30/25 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.00% | — | 2.20% |
| 01/30/25 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 5.10% | — | 5.60% |
| 01/31/25 | Employment Cost Index | 0.90% | — | 0.80% |
| 01/31/25 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.30% |
| 01/31/25 | Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 0.40% |
| 01/31/25 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.30% |
| 01/31/25 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 01/31/25 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.40% |
| 01/31/25 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
| 01/31/25 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.80% | — | 2.80% |
| 01/31/25 | MNI Chicago PMI | 40 | — | 36.9 |
