A mild flight-to-quality trade emerged overnight following a drone attack on a U.S. military base in Jordan that killed three Americans and injured several others.
Treasury yields are currently 2-4 basis points lower across the curve, and S&P 500 futures are essentially unchanged. The rally in bonds eased somewhat when Iran attempted to distance itself from the attack.
It will be a busy week for U.S. markets. The Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement, which will provide the market guidance on upcoming supply, will be released Wednesday morning ahead of the FOMC announcement that afternoon. On Friday we’ll receive the January jobs report, and ahead of the payrolls report, updated job openings data for December will be released tomorrow via the JOLTS report.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 01/29/24 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | -12 | — | -9.3 | — |
| 01/30/24 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 01/30/24 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.50% | — | 0.64% | — |
| 01/30/24 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 5.75% | — | 4.87% | — |
| 01/30/24 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 4.77% | — |
| 01/30/24 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 114.2 | — | 110.7 | — |
| 01/30/24 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 148.5 | — |
| 01/30/24 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 85.6 | — |
| 01/30/24 | JOLTS Job Openings | 8722k | — | 8790k | — |
| 01/30/24 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -8.7 | — |
| 01/31/24 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 3.70% | — |
| 01/31/24 | ADP Employment Change | 145k | — | 164k | — |
| 01/31/24 | Employment Cost Index | 1.00% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 01/31/24 | MNI Chicago PMI | 48 | — | 46.9 | 47.2 |
| 01/31/24 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 5.50% | — | 5.50% | — |
| 01/31/24 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 5.25% | — | 5.25% | — |
| 01/31/24 | Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 5.40% | — | 5.40% | — |
| 02/01/24 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -20.20% | — |
| 02/01/24 | Nonfarm Productivity | 2.50% | — | 5.20% | — |
| 02/01/24 | Unit Labor Costs | 1.30% | — | -1.20% | — |
| 02/01/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 212k | — | 214k | — |
| 02/01/24 | Continuing Claims | 1843k | — | 1833k | — |
| 02/01/24 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 50.3 | — | 50.3 | — |
| 02/01/24 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 02/01/24 | ISM Manufacturing | 47.2 | — | 47.4 | — |
| 02/01/24 | ISM Prices Paid | 45.8 | — | 45.2 | — |
| 02/01/24 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 47.1 | — |
| 02/01/24 | ISM Employment | — | — | 48.1 | — |
| 02/01/24 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.70m | — | 15.83m | — |
| 02/02/24 | Revisions: Establishment Survey Data | ||||
| 02/02/24 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 02/02/24 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 180k | — | 216k | — |
| 02/02/24 | Change in Private Payrolls | 153k | — | 164k | — |
| 02/02/24 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 3k | — | 6k | — |
| 02/02/24 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | — | 3.70% | — |
| 02/02/24 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 02/02/24 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.10% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 02/02/24 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 | — |
| 02/02/24 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.60% | — | 62.50% | — |
| 02/02/24 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.10% | — |
| 02/02/24 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 79 | — | 78.8 | — |
| 02/02/24 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 83.3 | — |
| 02/02/24 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 75.9 | — |
| 02/02/24 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 02/02/24 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 02/02/24 | Factory Orders | 0.20% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 02/02/24 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 02/02/24 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 02/02/24 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.60% | — |
| 02/02/24 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 02/02/24 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.10% | — |
