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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasuries are little changed to start the day ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC decision.

The market is pricing in essentially a zero probability of a rate cut today, so the focus will be on the forward guidance from the official statement and Powell’s press conference. Both are more likely to convey a meeting-by-meeting and data-dependency approach to future decisions, but some market participants, as always, will cling to any hints of a dovish/hawkish tone. Powell is also likely to field questions regarding President Trump’s comments that he’d like to see the policy rate “come down a lot” while inflation remains above the Fed’s target. The potential imposition of tariffs still presents a wild card for Fed officials as it relates to inflation and growth expectations. While House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said that Trump’s threat of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting February 1 is still “very much” under consideration.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
1/29/2025MBA Mortgage Applications—-2.00%0.10%—
1/29/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance-$105.5b-$122.1b-$102.9b-$103.5b
1/29/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%-0.50%-0.20%-0.10%
1/29/2025Retail Inventories MoM0.20%-0.30%0.30%0.00%
1/29/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.50%—4.50%—
1/29/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)4.25%—4.25%—
1/29/2025Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate4.40%—4.40%—
1/30/2025GDP Annualized QoQ2.70%—3.10%—
1/30/2025Personal Consumption3.20%—3.70%—
1/30/2025GDP Price Index2.50%—1.90%—
1/30/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.50%—2.20%—
1/30/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k—223k—
1/30/2025Continuing Claims1902k—1899k—
1/30/2025Pending Home Sales MoM0.10%—2.20%—
1/30/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY4.20%—5.60%—
1/31/2025Employment Cost Index0.90%—0.80%—
1/31/2025Personal Income0.40%—0.30%—
1/31/2025Personal Spending0.50%—0.40%—
1/31/2025Real Personal Spending0.30%—0.30%—
1/31/2025PCE Price Index MoM0.30%—0.10%—
1/31/2025PCE Price Index YoY2.60%—2.40%—
1/31/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%—0.10%—
1/31/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY2.80%—2.80%—
1/31/2025MNI Chicago PMI40—36.9—
2/3/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI——50.1—
2/3/2025Construction Spending MoM——0.00%—
2/3/2025ISM Manufacturing48.9—49.349.2
2/3/2025ISM New Orders——52.552.1
2/3/2025ISM Employment——45.345.4
2/3/2025ISM Prices Paid——52.5—
2/3/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.20m—16.80m—
2/4/2025JOLTS Job Openings——8098k—
2/4/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate——4.80%—
2/4/2025JOLTS Quits Level——3065k—
2/4/2025JOLTS Quits Rate——1.90%—
2/4/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level——1765k—
2/4/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate——1.10%—
2/4/2025Factory Orders0.80%—-0.40%—
2/4/2025Factory Orders Ex Trans——0.20%—
2/4/2025Durable Goods Orders——-2.20%—
2/4/2025Durables Ex Transportation——0.30%—
2/4/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——0.50%—
2/4/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——0.60%—
2/5/2025MBA Mortgage Applications——-2.00%—
2/5/2025ADP Employment Change155k—122k—
2/5/2025Trade Balance-$80.4b—-$78.2b—
2/5/2025S&P Global US Services PMI——52.8—
2/5/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI——52.4—
2/5/2025ISM Services Index54.3—54.154
2/5/2025ISM Services New Orders——54.254.4
2/5/2025ISM Services Employment——51.451.3
2/5/2025ISM Services Prices Paid——64.4—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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