“A soft landing is increasingly conceivable but in no way inevitable”, according to Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, who votes on the central bank’s policy this year.
In a speech he’ll deliver on Wednesday to the Raleigh Chamber, Barkin reiterated that the possibility of further monetary tightening is still on the table but added, “Demand, employment, and inflation all surged but now seem to be on a path back toward normal”. He also emphasized a data-dependent approach – consistent with Jerome Powell’s long-standing messaging – to determine the pace and timing of changes in their benchmark rate. Still, markets remain at odds with the latest median forecast from the Federal Reserve. Investors are pricing in roughly 150 basis points of rate cuts over the course of 2024, despite policymakers assuming only half that based on their December meeting.
Despite this, risk-off sentiment has been pervasive to start the new year. Global equities and bonds slumped the most in tandem in the first full trading day since 1999, and the sell-off has continued in early trading today. U.S. Treasuries are bear steepening, while S&P 500 futures are down nearly 0.50% pre-market. Market participants will have their eyes on JOLTS data later today, as well as the 2PM ET release of the December FOMC minutes.
Michael Oravetz
Senior Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 1/3/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -10.70% | 1.40% | — |
| 1/3/2024 | ISM Manufacturing | 47.1 | — | 46.7 | — |
| 1/3/2024 | ISM Prices Paid | 49.5 | — | 49.9 | — |
| 1/3/2024 | ISM Employment | 46.5 | — | 45.8 | — |
| 1/3/2024 | ISM New Orders | 49.1 | — | 48.3 | — |
| 1/3/2024 | JOLTS Job Openings | 8821k | — | 8733k | — |
| 1/3/2024 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 1/3/2024 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.50m | — | 15.32m | — |
| 1/4/2024 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -40.80% | — |
| 1/4/2024 | ADP Employment Change | 121k | — | 103k | — |
| 1/4/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 216k | — | 218k | — |
| 1/4/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1880k | — | 1875k | — |
| 1/4/2024 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 51.3 | — | 51.3 | — |
| 1/4/2024 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 51 | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Revisions: Household Survey Data | ||||
| 1/5/2024 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -35k | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 170k | — | 199k | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Change in Private Payrolls | 130k | — | 150k | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 5k | — | 28k | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | — | 3.70% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.90% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | — | 34.4 | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.80% | — | 62.80% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.00% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Factory Orders | 2.30% | — | -3.60% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | -1.20% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Durable Goods Orders | 5.40% | — | 5.40% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 1/5/2024 | ISM Services Index | 52.5 | — | 52.7 | — |
| 1/5/2024 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 58.3 | — |
| 1/5/2024 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 50.7 | — |
| 1/5/2024 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 55.5 | — |
