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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are modestly lower as the market reacts to this morning’s data releases.

The first estimate of Q4 GDP growth was 30 bps less than expected at 2.3%, but within the data, personal consumption was a full percentage point above expectations at 4.2%. Inventories shaved 93 bps off the topline growth rate, and private capital investments were very weak as well, particularly for equipment. The GDP price index was 30 bps lower than expected at 2.2%. Final sales to private domestic purchasers, sometimes referred to as core GDP, rose a solid 3.2% in Q4. In a separate report, initial jobless claims fell 16,000 last week to 207,000, but the data likely still has noise related to the tragic fires in Los Angeles.

As widely expected, the Fed left policy rates unchanged yesterday, but changes to the official statement related to labor market health and inflation progress were marginally hawkish. This initially fueled a selloff in bonds, but Fed Chair Powell seemed intent on dampening this interpretation with more dovish rhetoric during the press conference. As such, pricing in fed fund futures for 2025 has changed little relative to before the FOMC meeting.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
1/30/2025GDP Annualized QoQ2.60%2.30%3.10%—
1/30/2025Personal Consumption3.20%4.20%3.70%—
1/30/2025GDP Price Index2.50%2.20%1.90%—
1/30/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.50%2.50%2.20%—
1/30/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k207k223k—
1/30/2025Continuing Claims1902k1858k1899k1900k
1/30/2025Pending Home Sales MoM0.00%—2.20%—
1/30/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY4.20%—5.60%—
1/31/2025Employment Cost Index0.90%—0.80%—
1/31/2025Personal Income0.40%—0.30%—
1/31/2025Personal Spending0.50%—0.40%—
1/31/2025Real Personal Spending0.30%—0.30%—
1/31/2025PCE Price Index MoM0.30%—0.10%—
1/31/2025PCE Price Index YoY2.60%—2.40%—
1/31/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%—0.10%—
1/31/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY2.80%—2.80%—
1/31/2025MNI Chicago PMI40—36.9—
2/3/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI——50.1—
2/3/2025Construction Spending MoM——0.00%—
2/3/2025ISM Manufacturing49—49.349.2
2/3/2025ISM New Orders——52.552.1
2/3/2025ISM Employment——45.345.4
2/3/2025ISM Prices Paid——52.5—
2/3/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.20m—16.80m—
2/4/2025JOLTS Job Openings——8098k—
2/4/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate——4.80%—
2/4/2025JOLTS Quits Level——3065k—
2/4/2025JOLTS Quits Rate——1.90%—
2/4/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level——1765k—
2/4/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate——1.10%—
2/4/2025Factory Orders0.70%—-0.40%—
2/4/2025Factory Orders Ex Trans——0.20%—
2/4/2025Durable Goods Orders——-2.20%—
2/4/2025Durables Ex Transportation——0.30%—
2/4/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——0.50%—
2/4/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——0.60%—
2/5/2025MBA Mortgage Applications——-2.00%—
2/5/2025ADP Employment Change155k—122k—
2/5/2025Trade Balance-$80.4b—-$78.2b—
2/5/2025S&P Global US Services PMI——52.8—
2/5/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI——52.4—
2/5/2025ISM Services Index54.3—54.154
2/5/2025ISM Services New Orders——54.254.4
2/5/2025ISM Services Employment——51.451.3
2/5/2025ISM Services Prices Paid——64.4—
2/6/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY——11.40%—
2/6/2025Nonfarm Productivity2.00%—2.20%—
2/6/2025Unit Labor Costs3.30%—0.80%—
2/6/2025Initial Jobless Claims——207k—
2/6/2025Continuing Claims——1858k—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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