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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

A stronger rally emerged initially overnight on the Venezuela headlines, but that rally has mostly faded with yields essentially flat versus Friday’s close this morning.

The bond market has shifted focus to today’s heavy corporate bond issuance calendar. U.S. equity futures are higher ahead of the open, boosted by chip makers such as Micron and Intel. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the release of the December jobs report on Friday, and later this morning, the results of the December ISM manufacturing survey are expected to show a modest pickup in activity versus the prior month. There will be very little commentary from Fed leaders this week, with only two appearances on the calendar this week, both by Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin (FOMC non-voter in 2026). 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
1/5/2026ISM Manufacturing48.4     —48.2
1/5/2026ISM Prices Paid58.7     —58.5
1/5/2026ISM New Orders     —     —47.4
1/5/2026ISM Employment     —     —44
1/5/2026Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.80m     —15.60m
1/6/2026S&P Global US Services PMI52.9     —52.9
1/6/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —53
1/7/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —     —
1/7/2026MBA Releases Dec. 26 and Jan. 2 Week Ending Reports on Jan. 7   
1/7/2026ADP Employment Change48k     —-32k
1/7/2026ISM Services Index52.3     —52.6
1/7/2026ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —65.4
1/7/2026ISM Services New Orders     —     —52.9
1/7/2026ISM Services Employment     —     —48.9
1/7/2026JOLTS Job Openings7679k     —7670k
1/7/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.60%
1/7/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —2941k
1/7/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —1.80%
1/7/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1854k
1/7/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.20%
1/7/2026Factory Orders-1.10%     —0.20%
1/7/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —0.20%
1/7/2026Durable Goods Orders-2.20%     —-2.20%
1/7/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.20%
1/7/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.50%
1/7/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.70%
1/8/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —23.50%
1/8/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —71321
1/8/2026Nonfarm Productivity4.70%     —3.30%
1/8/2026Unit Labor Costs0.30%     —1.00%
1/8/2026Initial Jobless Claims211k     —199k
1/8/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —218.75k
1/8/2026Continuing Claims1890k     —1866k
1/8/2026Trade Balance-$58.8b     —-$52.8b
1/8/2026Exports MoM     —     —3.00%
1/8/2026Imports MoM     —     —0.60%
1/8/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.50%
1/8/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —-0.20%
1/8/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.20%
1/8/2026Consumer Credit$10.000b     —$9.178b
1/9/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —     —
1/9/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls59k     —64k
1/9/2026Change in Private Payrolls63k     —69k
1/9/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls-5k     —-5k
1/9/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —22k
1/9/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.10%
1/9/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.60%     —3.50%
1/9/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3
1/9/2026Unemployment Rate4.50%     —4.60%
1/9/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.40%     —62.50%
1/9/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.70%
1/9/2026Census Releases Sept.-Oct. Housing Starts Reports on Jan. 9   
1/9/2026Housing Starts1325k     —     —
1/9/2026Building Permits1350k     —1330k
1/9/2026Housing Starts MoM1.40%     —     —
1/9/2026Building Permits MoM1.50%     —     —
1/9/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment53.5     —52.9
1/9/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —50.4
1/9/2026U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —54.6
1/9/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.20%
1/9/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.20%
1/9/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$7086b
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Personal Income     —     —0.40%
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Personal Spending     —     —0.30%
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Real Personal Spending     —     —0.00%
1/12/2026-1/23/2026JOLTS Job Openings     —     —     —
1/12/2026-1/20/2026PCE Price Index MoM     —     —0.30%
1/12/2026-1/23/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —     —
1/12/2026-1/20/2026PCE Price Index YoY     —     —2.80%
1/12/2026-1/23/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —     —
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM     —     —0.20%
1/12/2026-1/23/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —     —
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY     —     —2.80%
1/12/2026-1/23/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —     —
1/12/2026-1/23/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —     —
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Housing Starts     —     —     —
1/12/2026-1/16/2026Building Permits     —     —1330k
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Housing Starts MoM     —     —     —
1/12/2026-1/16/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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