Treasury yields modestly lower on the front end of the curve to start the first fully staffed week of the year for most.
Bloomberg is reporting that President-elect Trump’s team are considering a narrower tariff plan than the universal one he had proposed during the campaign. The story suggests that the tariffs would instead be limited to specific critical imports. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the December jobs report on Friday, which is expected to show 158,000 jobs added to nonfarm payrolls and no change in the unemployment rate (4.2%). The minutes of the December FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday, and several Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week, beginning with Governor Cook this morning.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 1/6/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 58.5 | — | 58.5 | — |
| 1/6/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 56.6 | — |
| 1/6/2025 | Factory Orders | -0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 1/6/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 1/6/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | -0.50% | — | -1.10% | — |
| 1/6/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 1/6/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 1/6/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 1/7/2025 | Trade Balance | -$78.2b | — | -$73.8b | — |
| 1/7/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | 7733k | — | 7744k | — |
| 1/7/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.60% | — |
| 1/7/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3326k | — |
| 1/7/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.10% | — |
| 1/7/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1633k | — |
| 1/7/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 1/7/2025 | ISM Services Index | 53.5 | — | 52.1 | — |
| 1/7/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | 57.5 | — | 58.2 | — |
| 1/7/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | 54 | — | 53.7 | — |
| 1/7/2025 | ISM Services Employment | 51.1 | — | 51.5 | — |
| 1/8/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | — | — |
| 1/8/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 133k | — | 146k | — |
| 1/8/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 216k | — | 211k | — |
| 1/8/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1862k | — | 1844k | — |
| 1/8/2025 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 1/8/2025 | Consumer Credit | $10.500b | — | $19.239b | — |
| 1/9/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 26.80% | — |
| 1/9/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 1/9/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 158k | — | 227k | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 56k | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 133k | — | 194k | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 5k | — | 22k | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.20% | — | 4.20% | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.00% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.50% | — | 62.50% | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.80% | — |
| 1/10/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 73.9 | — | 74 | — |
| 1/10/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 75.1 | — | 75.1 | — |
| 1/10/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 72.7 | — | 73.3 | — |
| 1/10/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.80% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 1/10/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 1/13/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 2.97% | — |
| 1/13/2025 | Federal Budget Balance | — | — | -$366.8b | — |
