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Author Kirby Hart

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Estimated

Treasuries have moved higher to start the day after a 2-3 bps move lower yesterday following the softer December ISM manufacturing survey result.

In the stock market, worries about geopolitical risk from Venezuela were set aside yesterday, with the Dow briefly hitting a new record. Equity futures currently point to a little changed open to start the day. Attention is now focused on the December Jobs report on Friday. We will get commentary from Richmond Fed President Barkin today.

Kirby Hart
Associate

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
1/6/2026S&P Global US Services PMI52.9     —52.9
1/6/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —53
1/7/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —     —
1/7/2026MBA Releases Dec. 26 and Jan. 2 Week Ending Reports on Jan. 7   
1/7/2026ADP Employment Change50k     —-32k
1/7/2026ISM Services Index52.2     —52.6
1/7/2026ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —65.4
1/7/2026ISM Services New Orders     —     —52.9
1/7/2026ISM Services Employment     —     —48.9
1/7/2026JOLTS Job Openings7600k     —7670k
1/7/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.60%
1/7/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —2941k
1/7/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —1.80%
1/7/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1854k
1/7/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.20%
1/7/2026Factory Orders-1.20%     —0.20%
1/7/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —0.20%
1/7/2026Durable Goods Orders-2.20%     —-2.20%
1/7/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.20%     —0.20%
1/7/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.50%
1/7/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.70%
1/8/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —23.50%
1/8/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —71321
1/8/2026Nonfarm Productivity4.90%     —3.30%
1/8/2026Unit Labor Costs0.00%     —1.00%
1/8/2026Initial Jobless Claims212k     —199k
1/8/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —218.75k
1/8/2026Continuing Claims1900k     —1866k
1/8/2026Trade Balance-$58.5b     —-$52.8b
1/8/2026Exports MoM     —     —3.00%
1/8/2026Imports MoM     —     —0.60%
1/8/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.50%
1/8/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —-0.20%
1/8/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.20%
1/8/2026Consumer Credit$10.000b     —$9.178b
1/9/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —     —
1/9/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls65k     —64k
1/9/2026Change in Private Payrolls68k     —69k
1/9/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls-5k     —-5k
1/9/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —22k
1/9/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.10%
1/9/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.60%     —3.50%
1/9/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3
1/9/2026Unemployment Rate4.50%     —4.60%
1/9/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.40%     —62.50%
1/9/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.70%
1/9/2026Census Releases Sept.-Oct. Housing Starts Reports on Jan. 9   
1/9/2026Housing Starts1330k     —     —
1/9/2026Building Permits1350k     —1330k
1/9/2026Housing Starts MoM1.80%     —     —
1/9/2026Building Permits MoM1.50%     —     —
1/9/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment53.5     —52.9
1/9/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions52     —50.4
1/9/2026U. of Mich. Expectations55     —54.6
1/9/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.10%     —4.20%
1/9/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.20%
1/9/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$7086b
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Personal Income     —     —0.40%
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Personal Spending     —     —0.30%
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Real Personal Spending     —     —0.00%
1/12/2026-1/20/2026PCE Price Index MoM     —     —0.30%
1/12/2026-1/20/2026PCE Price Index YoY     —     —2.80%
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM     —     —0.20%
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY     —     —2.80%
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Housing Starts     —     —     —
1/12/2026-1/16/2026Building Permits     —     —1330k
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Housing Starts MoM     —     —     —
1/12/2026-1/16/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
1/13/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —99
1/13/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —     —
1/13/2026CPI MoM0.30%     —     —
1/13/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —     —
1/13/2026CPI YoY2.70%     —2.70%
1/13/2026Core CPI YoY2.70%     —2.60%
1/13/2026CPI Index NSA     —     —324.122
1/13/2026Core CPI Index SA     —     —331.068
1/13/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.80%
1/13/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —0.80%
1/13/2026Census Releases Sept.-Oct. New Home Sales Reports on Jan. 13   
1/13/2026New Home Sales700k     —     —
1/13/2026New Home Sales MoM-12.50%     —20.50%
1/13/2026Federal Budget Balance     —     —-$173.3b

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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