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Author Kirby Hart

Published

Estimated

Treasuries have rallied since last afternoon after ADP data showed a rise in hiring in December.

Treasury yields are 2-4 bps lower across the curve to start the morning in a bull flattening shift. The S&P 500 notched another record high as stocks continued their early 2026 momentum ahead of the release of new economic data this week. Equity futures currently point to another positive open to start the day.

Kirby Hart
Associate

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
1/7/2026MBA Releases Dec. 26 and Jan. 2 Week Ending Reports on Jan. 7   
1/7/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-10.00%-5.00%
1/7/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —0.30%-10.00%
1/7/2026ADP Employment Change50k41k-32k
1/7/2026ISM Services Index52.2     —52.6
1/7/2026ISM Services Prices Paid64.9     —65.4
1/7/2026ISM Services New Orders52.6     —52.9
1/7/2026ISM Services Employment49     —48.9
1/7/2026JOLTS Job Openings7648k     —7670k
1/7/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.60%
1/7/2026JOLTS Quits Level2995k     —2941k
1/7/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —1.80%
1/7/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level1816k     —1854k
1/7/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.20%
1/7/2026Factory Orders-1.20%     —0.20%
1/7/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —0.20%
1/7/2026Durable Goods Orders-2.20%     —-2.20%
1/7/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.20%     —0.20%
1/7/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.50%
1/7/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.70%
1/8/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —23.50%
1/8/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —71321
1/8/2026Nonfarm Productivity5.00%     —3.30%
1/8/2026Unit Labor Costs0.00%     —1.00%
1/8/2026Initial Jobless Claims212k     —199k
1/8/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —218.75k
1/8/2026Continuing Claims1900k     —1866k
1/8/2026Trade Balance-$58.5b     —-$52.8b
1/8/2026Exports MoM     —     —3.00%
1/8/2026Imports MoM     —     —0.60%
1/8/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.50%
1/8/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM-0.20%     —-0.20%
1/8/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.20%
1/8/2026Consumer Credit$10.146b     —$9.178b
1/9/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —     —
1/9/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls69k     —64k
1/9/2026Change in Private Payrolls75k     —69k
1/9/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls-5k     —-5k
1/9/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —22k
1/9/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.10%
1/9/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.60%     —3.50%
1/9/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3
1/9/2026Unemployment Rate4.50%     —4.60%
1/9/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.40%     —62.50%
1/9/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.70%
1/9/2026Census Releases Sept.-Oct. Housing Starts Reports on Jan. 9   
1/9/2026Housing Starts1330k     —     —
1/9/2026Building Permits1350k     —     —
1/9/2026Housing Starts MoM1.80%     —     —
1/9/2026Building Permits MoM1.50%     —     —
1/9/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment53.5     —52.9
1/9/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions51.8     —50.4
1/9/2026U. of Mich. Expectations54.9     —54.6
1/9/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.10%     —4.20%
1/9/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.20%
1/9/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$7086b
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Personal Income     —     —0.40%
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Personal Spending     —     —0.30%
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Real Personal Spending     —     —0.00%
1/12/2026-1/20/2026PCE Price Index MoM     —     —0.30%
1/12/2026-1/20/2026PCE Price Index YoY     —     —2.80%
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM     —     —0.20%
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY     —     —2.80%
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Housing Starts     —     —     —
1/12/2026-1/16/2026Building Permits     —     —     —
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Housing Starts MoM     —     —     —
1/12/2026-1/16/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
1/13/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —99
1/13/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —     —
1/13/2026CPI MoM0.30%     —     —
1/13/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —     —
1/13/2026CPI YoY2.70%     —2.70%
1/13/2026Core CPI YoY2.70%     —2.60%
1/13/2026CPI Index NSA     —     —324.122
1/13/2026Core CPI Index SA     —     —331.068
1/13/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.80%
1/13/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —0.80%
1/13/2026Census Releases Sept.-Oct. New Home Sales Reports on Jan. 13   
1/13/2026New Home Sales700k     —     —
1/13/2026New Home Sales MoM-12.50%     —     —
1/13/2026Federal Budget Balance     —     —-$173.3b
1/14/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —0.30%
1/14/2026BLS to Release Oct. and Nov. PPI on Jan. 14   
1/14/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —     —
1/14/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%     —     —
1/14/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%     —     —
1/14/2026PPI Final Demand YoY2.60%     —     —
1/14/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —     —
1/14/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —     —
1/14/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%     —0.00%
1/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%     —0.40%
1/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.50%
1/14/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —0.80%
1/14/2026Current Account Balance     —     —-$251.3b
1/14/2026Existing Home Sales4.23m     —4.13m
1/14/2026Existing Home Sales MoM2.40%     —0.50%
1/14/2026Business Inventories     —     —0.20%
1/14/2026-1/30/2026New Home Sales     —     —     —

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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