The Treasury curve is steeper this morning with the two-year down a bp while the ten-year is up 2 bps.
Jobs data from ADP showed US firms adding the fewest number of employees since August. The report showed an increase of 122,000, lower than the forecast of 140,000. The report also showed a slowdown in wage growth as individuals who changed jobs saw a 7.1% increase in pay while those who stayed with their current firm saw an increase of 4.6%, which is the slowest pace since the middle of 2021. Initial jobless claims data, published a day early due to tomorrow’s National Day of Mourning, fell unexpectedly to 201,000 from 211,000 the week before. The Bloomberg survey had called for 215,000. The government’s job report is slated for this Friday and is expected to show payrolls increasing by 163,000.
Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 01/08/25 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -3.70% | — |
| 01/08/25 | ADP Employment Change | 140k | 122k | 146k |
| 01/08/25 | US Jan. 9 releases moved to Jan. 8 due to Carter Funeral | |||
| 01/08/25 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | 201k | 211k |
| 01/08/25 | Continuing Claims | 1860k | 1867k | 1844k |
| 01/08/25 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.20% |
| 01/08/25 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.10% |
| 01/08/25 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — |
| 01/08/25 | Consumer Credit | $10.500b | — | $19.239b |
| 01/09/25 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 26.80% |
| 01/10/25 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 163k | — | 227k |
| 01/10/25 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 56k |
| 01/10/25 | Change in Private Payrolls | 140k | — | 194k |
| 01/10/25 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 5k | — | 22k |
| 01/10/25 | Unemployment Rate | 4.20% | — | 4.20% |
| 01/10/25 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% |
| 01/10/25 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.00% | — | 4.00% |
| 01/10/25 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 |
| 01/10/25 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.50% | — | 62.50% |
| 01/10/25 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.80% |
| 01/10/25 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 74 | — | 74 |
| 01/10/25 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 75.1 | — | 75.1 |
| 01/10/25 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 72.7 | — | 73.3 |
| 01/10/25 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.80% | — | 2.80% |
| 01/10/25 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.00% | — | 3.00% |
