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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

A combination of improved economic data and heavy expected bond issuance in Europe is pushing Treasury yields modestly higher to start the day.

Initial jobless claims filed last week were less than expected at 208,000, still at a relatively low level. The number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits increased more than expected and remains at more elevated levels, suggesting that those who have been laid off are having a more difficult time finding new employment (i.e., low firing/low hiring). In a separate report, the Challenger job cuts report for December showed that companies announced just 35,553 separations over the month, the fewest number of layoffs since July 2024. Additionally, the report said companies planned to add the most jobs for any December since 2022.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
1/8/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —-8.30%23.50%     —
1/8/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —3555371321     —
1/8/2026Nonfarm Productivity5.00%4.90%3.30%4.10%
1/8/2026Unit Labor Costs-0.10%-1.90%1.00%-2.90%
1/8/2026Initial Jobless Claims212k208k199k200k
1/8/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —211.75k218.75k219.00k
1/8/2026Continuing Claims1900k1914k1866k1858k
1/8/2026Trade Balance-$58.7b-$29.4b-$52.8b-$48.1b
1/8/2026Exports MoM     —2.60%3.00%3.60%
1/8/2026Imports MoM     —-3.20%0.60%0.80%
1/8/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.50%     —
1/8/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM-0.20%     —-0.20%     —
1/8/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.20%     —
1/8/2026Consumer Credit$10.082b     —$9.178b     —
1/9/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls70k     —64k     —
1/9/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —     —     —
1/9/2026Change in Private Payrolls75k     —69k     —
1/9/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls-5k     —-5k     —
1/9/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —22k     —
1/9/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.10%     —
1/9/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.60%     —3.50%     —
1/9/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3     —
1/9/2026Unemployment Rate4.50%     —4.60%     —
1/9/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.40%     —62.50%     —
1/9/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.70%     —
1/9/2026Census Releases Sept.-Oct. Housing Starts Reports on Jan. 9    
1/9/2026Housing Starts1330k     —     —     —
1/9/2026Building Permits1350k     —     —     —
1/9/2026Housing Starts MoM1.80%     —     —     —
1/9/2026Building Permits MoM1.50%     —     —     —
1/9/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment53.5     —52.9     —
1/9/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions51.8     —50.4     —
1/9/2026U. of Mich. Expectations54.9     —54.6     —
1/9/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.10%     —4.20%     —
1/9/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.20%     —
1/9/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$7086b     —
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Housing Starts     —     —     —     —
1/12/2026-1/16/2026Building Permits     —     —     —     —
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Housing Starts MoM     —     —     —     —
1/12/2026-1/16/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —     —     —
1/13/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —99     —
1/13/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —     —     —
1/13/2026CPI MoM0.30%     —     —     —
1/13/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —     —     —
1/13/2026CPI YoY2.70%     —2.70%     —
1/13/2026Core CPI YoY2.70%     —2.60%     —
1/13/2026CPI Index NSA324.312     —324.122     —
1/13/2026Core CPI Index SA     —     —331.068     —
1/13/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.80%     —
1/13/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —0.80%     —
1/13/2026Census Releases Sept.-Oct. New Home Sales Reports on Jan. 13    
1/13/2026New Home Sales705k     —     —     —
1/13/2026New Home Sales MoM-11.90%     —     —     —
1/13/2026Federal Budget Balance     —     —-$173.3b     —
1/14/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —0.30%     —
1/14/2026BLS to Release Oct. and Nov. PPI on Jan. 14    
1/14/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —     —     —
1/14/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%     —     —     —
1/14/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%     —     —     —
1/14/2026PPI Final Demand YoY2.60%     —     —     —
1/14/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —     —     —
1/14/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —     —     —
1/14/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%     —0.00%     —
1/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%     —0.40%     —
1/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.50%     —
1/14/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —0.80%     —
1/14/2026Current Account Balance     —     —-$251.3b     —
1/14/2026Existing Home Sales4.22m     —4.13m     —
1/14/2026Existing Home Sales MoM2.10%     —0.50%     —
1/14/2026Business Inventories     —     —0.20%     —
1/14/2026-1/30/2026New Home Sales     —     —     —     —
1/15/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —208k     —
1/15/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —211.75k     —
1/15/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1914k     —
1/15/2026BLS Releases Limited Oct. Import-Export Series with Nov. Data    
1/15/2026Import Price Index MoM-0.20%     —     —     —
1/15/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —     —     —
1/15/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —     —     —
1/15/2026Export Price Index MoM     —     —     —     —
1/15/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —     —     —
1/15/2026Empire Manufacturing1     —-3.9     —
1/15/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-4     —-10.2-8.8
1/15/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —-$37.3b     —
1/15/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$17.5b     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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