Treasury yields are 2-4 basis points lower to start the day following a relatively quiet overnight session.
The bond market will close at 2pm ET today in honor of the National Day of Mourning for former U.S. President Jimmy Carter. The U.K. government bond market remains choppy on fiscal and inflation concerns, which has somewhat bled into U.S. markets, but Treasuries reversed a selloff yesterday following a downside miss in ADP payrolls data and dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller. Attention now shifts to tomorrow’s December jobs report, which is currently expected to show 165,000 jobs added to nonfarm payrolls and no change in the unemployment rate.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 1/9/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 11.40% | 26.80% | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 165k | — | 227k | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 56k | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 138k | — | 194k | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 5k | — | 22k | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.20% | — | 4.20% | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.00% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.50% | — | 62.50% | — |
| 1/10/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.80% | — |
| 1/10/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 74 | — | 74 | — |
| 1/10/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 75.1 | — | 75.1 | — |
| 1/10/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 72.7 | — | 73.3 | — |
| 1/10/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.80% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 1/10/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 1/13/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 2.97% | — |
| 1/13/2025 | Federal Budget Balance | — | — | -$366.8b | — |
| 1/14/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 100.5 | — | 101.7 | — |
| 1/14/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/14/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 1/14/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 1/14/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 1/14/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 3.40% | — |
| 1/14/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.50% | — |
| 1/15/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -3.70% | — |
| 1/15/2025 | Empire Manufacturing | -2 | — | 0.2 | — |
| 1/15/2025 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/15/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/15/2025 | CPI YoY | 2.90% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 1/15/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.30% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 1/15/2025 | CPI Index NSA | 315.573 | — | 315.493 | — |
| 1/15/2025 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 322.657 | — |
| 1/15/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.30% | — |
| 1/15/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 1.00% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | — | — | 1.30% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | -8 | — | -16.4 | -10.9 |
| 1/16/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -5.2 | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 201k | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1867k | — |
| 1/16/2025 | Business Inventories | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 1/16/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | — | — | 46 | — |
