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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

The December jobs report stuck to the recent trend of more tepid job growth but relatively low unemployment.

Nonfarm payrolls added 50,000 jobs last month versus 70,000 expected, and the prior two months were revised lower by 76,000 jobs. Private payrolls added just 37,000 jobs (75,000 expected). On a positive note, the unemployment rate fell 20 basis points (bps) to 4.4%, and wage growth was solid at 0.3% m/m. Treasury yields are 2-3 bps higher on the front-end of the curve in the initial market reaction.

Markets are also reacting to President Trump’s social media post late yesterday when he effectively ordered Fannie and Freddie to buy $200 billion of mortgage securities in an effort to lower primary mortgage rates. Agency MBS spreads, which were already a bit snug, have tightened notably on the headlines, although details are still limited. To be clear, Fannie and Freddie have been doing this already for the last 6+ months and increased their retained portfolios by 36%.  More on this story to come.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
1/9/2026Housing Starts     —1306k1307k1291k
1/9/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls70k50k64k56k
1/9/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —-76k     —     —
1/9/2026Change in Private Payrolls75k37k69k50k
1/9/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls-5k-8k-5k-2k
1/9/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —-22k22k-3k
1/9/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.30%0.10%0.20%
1/9/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.60%3.80%3.50%3.60%
1/9/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.334.234.3     —
1/9/2026Unemployment Rate4.50%4.40%4.60%4.50%
1/9/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.40%62.40%62.50%     —
1/9/2026Underemployment Rate     —8.40%8.70%     —
1/9/2026Census Releases Sept.-Oct. Housing Starts Reports on Jan. 9    
1/9/2026Building Permits1350k1412k1415k     —
1/9/2026Housing Starts MoM1.80%-4.60%1.20%     —
1/9/2026Building Permits MoM1.50%-0.20%6.40%     —
1/9/2026Housing Starts1330k1246k1306k     —
1/9/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment53.5     —52.9     —
1/9/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions52     —50.4     —
1/9/2026U. of Mich. Expectations55     —54.6     —
1/9/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.10%     —4.20%     —
1/9/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.20%     —
1/9/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$7086b     —
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Housing Starts     —     —1246k     —
1/12/2026-1/16/2026Building Permits     —     —1412k     —
1/12/2026-1/20/2026Housing Starts MoM     —     —-4.60%     —
1/12/2026-1/16/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —-0.20%     —
1/13/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —99     —
1/13/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —     —     —
1/13/2026CPI MoM0.30%     —     —     —
1/13/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —     —     —
1/13/2026CPI YoY2.70%     —2.70%     —
1/13/2026Core CPI YoY2.70%     —2.60%     —
1/13/2026CPI Index NSA324.27     —324.122     —
1/13/2026Core CPI Index SA     —     —331.068     —
1/13/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.80%     —
1/13/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —0.80%0.90%
1/13/2026Census Releases Sept.-Oct. New Home Sales Reports on Jan. 13    
1/13/2026New Home Sales714k     —     —     —
1/13/2026New Home Sales MoM-10.80%     —     —     —
1/13/2026Federal Budget Balance     —     —-$173.3b     —
1/14/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —0.30%     —
1/14/2026BLS to Release Oct. and Nov. PPI on Jan. 14    
1/14/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%     —     —     —
1/14/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%     —     —     —
1/14/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%     —     —     —
1/14/2026PPI Final Demand YoY2.60%     —     —     —
1/14/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —     —     —
1/14/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —     —     —
1/14/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%     —0.00%     —
1/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%     —0.40%     —
1/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.50%     —
1/14/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —0.80%     —
1/14/2026Current Account Balance     —     —-$251.3b     —
1/14/2026Existing Home Sales4.23m     —4.13m     —
1/14/2026Existing Home Sales MoM2.40%     —0.50%     —
1/14/2026Business Inventories     —     —0.20%     —
1/14/2026-1/30/2026New Home Sales     —     —     —     —
1/15/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-2.9     —-10.2-8.8
1/15/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —208k     —
1/15/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —211.75k     —
1/15/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1914k     —
1/15/2026BLS Releases Limited Oct. Import-Export Series with Nov. Data    
1/15/2026Import Price Index MoM-0.20%     —     —     —
1/15/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —     —     —
1/15/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —     —     —
1/15/2026Export Price Index MoM     —     —     —     —
1/15/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —     —     —
1/15/2026Empire Manufacturing1     —-3.9     —
1/15/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —-$37.3b     —
1/15/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$17.5b     —
1/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-20     —
1/16/2026Industrial Production MoM0.20%     —0.20%     —
1/16/2026Manufacturing (SIC) Production     —     —0.00%     —
1/16/2026Capacity Utilization76.00%     —76.00%     —
1/16/2026NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —39     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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