Treasury yields are modestly lower and flatter on the first trading day of Q3.
June was another strong month for credit-risky assets. The S&P 500 generated a 5.08% return in June, adding to the 6.29% May return. Corporate credit also performed well in June, with investment grade and high yield indices (ICE BofA) outperforming duration-matched Treasuries by 45 basis points (bps) and 102 bps, respectively. The outperformance of fixed income credit was driven primarily by asset spread tightening amid continued strong investor demand in the wake of the White House’s de-escalation of trade threats, although the July 9 expiration of the first 90-day reciprocal tariff pause against most trading partners looms. Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) performance, more specifically 30-year pools, lagged other sectors in May, but 30-year MBS posted its best performance of the year in June. Later this morning, multiple economic data reports will be released, including June ISM manufacturing data and the May JOLTS report.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 7/1/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 52 | — | 52 |
| 7/1/2025 | ISM Manufacturing | 48.8 | — | 48.5 |
| 7/1/2025 | ISM Prices Paid | 69.5 | — | 69.4 |
| 7/1/2025 | ISM New Orders | 48.1 | — | 47.6 |
| 7/1/2025 | ISM Employment | 47.1 | — | 46.8 |
| 7/1/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.40% |
| 7/1/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | 7300k | — | 7391k |
| 7/1/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | 4.40% | — | 4.40% |
| 7/1/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | 3188k | — | 3194k |
| 7/1/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.00% |
| 7/1/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | 1831k | — | 1786k |
| 7/1/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.10% |
| 7/1/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -10.1 |
| 7/1/2025 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.30m | — | 15.65m |
| 7/2/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.10% |
| 7/2/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 47.00% |
| 7/2/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 95k | — | 37k |
| 7/3/2025 | Trade Balance | -$71.0b | — | -$61.6b |
| 7/3/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 110k | — | 139k |
| 7/3/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 105k | — | 140k |
| 7/3/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -3k | — | -8k |
| 7/3/2025 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | — | 135k |
| 7/3/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -95k |
| 7/3/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.30% | — | 4.20% |
| 7/3/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.50% | — | 62.40% |
| 7/3/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.80% |
| 7/3/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% |
| 7/3/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.80% | — | 3.90% |
| 7/3/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 |
| 7/3/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 240k | — | 236k |
| 7/3/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 245.00k |
| 7/3/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1957k | — | 1974k |
| 7/3/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 53.1 | — | 53.1 |
| 7/3/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 52.8 |
| 7/3/2025 | Factory Orders | 8.20% | — | -3.70% |
| 7/3/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | -0.50% |
| 7/3/2025 | ISM Services Index | 50.8 | — | 49.9 |
| 7/3/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | 68.4 | — | 68.7 |
| 7/3/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 46.4 |
| 7/3/2025 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 50.7 |
| 7/3/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 16.40% | — | 16.40% |
| 7/3/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | — | 0.50% |
| 7/3/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.70% |
| 7/3/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.50% |
| 7/8/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 97.9 | — | 98.8 |
| 7/8/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.20% |
| 7/8/2025 | Consumer Credit | $13.000b | — | $17.873b |
