The Treasury curve is bear steepening this morning in a continuation of yesterday afternoon’s move.
There weren’t clear catalysts for yesterday’s price action. Month/quarter end can be a little tricky when it comes to technical factors, including rebalancing activity of pension funds and foreign investors. Regarding the latter, there is some chatter that the recent strengthening of the US dollar is pushing some foreign investors to book profits and reinvest elsewhere. The big focus item for today is the panel discussion in Portugal this morning that includes the central bank heads from the US, Europe, Canada, and the UK. With oil prices back to pre-war levels, markets will be listening for any dampening of recent hawkishness, particularly from the European Central Bank’s perspective. June manufacturing data from S&P and ISM will be released later this morning.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 7/1/2026 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | -4.50% | 3.40% | — |
| 7/1/2026 | Challenger Job Cuts Total | — | 45849 | 97006 | — |
| 7/1/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 0.00% | 1.00% | — |
| 7/1/2026 | ADP Employment Change | 120k | 98k | 122k | — |
| 7/1/2026 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 55.7 | — | 55.7 | — |
| 7/1/2026 | ISM Manufacturing | 53.9 | — | 54 | — |
| 7/1/2026 | ISM Prices Paid | 77.5 | — | 82.1 | — |
| 7/1/2026 | ISM New Orders | 57 | — | 56.8 | — |
| 7/1/2026 | ISM Employment | 48.8 | — | 48.6 | — |
| 7/1/2026 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 7/01/2026 | Omdia Total Vehicle Sales | 16.10m | — | 16.08m | — |
| 7/2/2026 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 115k | — | 172k | — |
| 7/2/2026 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 93k | — |
| 7/2/2026 | Change in Private Payrolls | 115k | — | 120k | — |
| 7/2/2026 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 3k | — | 7k | — |
| 7/2/2026 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | — | 188k | — |
| 7/2/2026 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 7/2/2026 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.50% | — | 3.40% | — |
| 7/2/2026 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 | — |
| 7/2/2026 | Unemployment Rate | 4.30% | — | 4.30% | — |
| 7/2/2026 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.80% | — | 61.80% | — |
| 7/2/2026 | Underemployment Rate | 6.20% | — | 8.10% | — |
| 7/2/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | 218k | — | 215k | — |
| 7/2/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 224.25k | — |
| 7/2/2026 | Continuing Claims | 1820k | — | 1821k | — |
| 7/2/2026 | Factory Orders | -2.00% | — | 4.80% | — |
| 7/2/2026 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | 1.00% | — | 1.30% | — |
| 7/2/2026 | Durable Goods Orders | -4.50% | — | -4.50% | — |
| 7/2/2026 | Durables Ex Transportation | 1.30% | — | 1.30% | — |
| 7/2/2026 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 1.60% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 7/2/2026 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 7/6/2026 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 51.3 | — |
| 7/6/2026 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 52.2 | — |
| 7/6/2026 | ISM Services Index | 54.2 | — | 54.5 | — |
| 7/6/2026 | ISM Services Prices Paid | 70.1 | — | 71.3 | — |
| 7/6/2026 | ISM Services New Orders | 57.5 | — | 57.3 | — |
| 7/6/2026 | ISM Services Employment | 48.1 | — | 47.9 | — |
| 7/7/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 30.750k | — |
| 7/7/2026 | Trade Balance | -$78.7b | — | -$55.9b | — |
| 7/7/2026 | Imports MoM | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 7/7/2026 | Exports MoM | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 7/8/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 7/8/2026 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 7/8/2026 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 7/8/2026 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | 0 |
| 7/8/2026 | Consumer Credit | $19.400b | — | $20.733b | — |
