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Author Jason Haley

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Ongoing strikes between the US and Iran is pushing oil prices higher to start the week (+3-4%).

The geopolitical tensions are having the opposite effect on stock and bond prices. Treasury yields are up 2-3 basis points, and S&P 500 futures are down 0.36% an hour before the open. The 2-year Treasury yield is now at the highest level (4.23%) since February 2025. This week’s calendar is headlined by tomorrow’s release of the June CPI report. Headline inflation is expected to have declined month-over-month given the sharp drop in oil prices, but core CPI is expected to hold steady at 0.2% m/m. Two Fed governors (Bowman & Waller) will speak at separate events, and beginning tomorrow, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will give his first Humphrey-Hawkins monetary policy report before Congress.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
7/13/2026Federal Budget Balance-$128.3b     —-$292.6b     —
7/14/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism95.7     —95.3     —
7/14/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —21.000k     —
7/14/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —-0.40%-0.50%
7/14/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —-0.70%-0.80%
7/14/2026CPI MoM-0.10%     —0.50%     —
7/14/2026Core CPI MoM0.20%     —0.20%     —
7/14/2026CPI YoY3.80%     —4.20%     —
7/14/2026Core CPI YoY2.90%     —2.90%     —
7/14/2026CPI Index NSA334.702     —335.123     —
7/14/2026Core CPI Index SA336.93     —336.121     —
7/14/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$26.1b     —
7/14/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$103.1b     —
7/15/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.20%     —
7/15/2026Empire Manufacturing9.7     —5.7     —
7/15/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.00%     —1.10%     —
7/15/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.40%     —
7/15/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%     —0.80%     —
7/15/2026PPI Final Demand YoY6.20%     —6.50%     —
7/15/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.20%     —4.90%     —
7/15/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —5.10%     —
7/15/2026Fed Releases Beige Book    
7/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-10.1     —
7/16/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook12.3     —10.3     —
7/16/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%     —0.90%     —
7/16/2026Initial Jobless Claims217k     —215k     —
7/16/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-0.10%     —0.80%     —
7/16/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —218.75k     —
7/16/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%     —0.50%     —
7/16/2026Continuing Claims1815k     —1814k     —
7/16/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.50%     —0.70%     —
7/16/2026NAHB Housing Market Index35     —35     —
7/16/2026Business Inventories0.30%     —0.50%     —
7/16/2026Pending Home Sales MoM-0.20%     —3.80%     —
7/16/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —2.10%     —
7/17/2026Import Price Index MoM-0.60%     —1.90%     —
7/17/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.40%     —0.80%     —
7/17/2026Import Price Index YoY6.70%     —6.70%     —
7/17/2026Export Price Index MoM-0.40%     —1.30%     —
7/17/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —11.20%     —
7/17/2026Housing Starts1315k     —1177k     —
7/17/2026Housing Starts MoM12.50%     —-15.40%     —
7/17/2026Building Permits1400k     —1410k     —
7/17/2026Building Permits MoM-0.70%     —-0.90%     —
7/17/2026Industrial Production MoM0.20%     —0.10%     —
7/17/2026Manufacturing Production MoM0.10%     —0.00%     —
7/17/2026Capacity Utilization76.20%     —76.20%     —
7/17/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment51     —49.5     —
7/17/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions48.7     —47.7     —
7/17/2026U. of Mich. Expectations52     —50.7     —
7/17/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.40%     —4.60%     —
7/17/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.30%     —
7/20/2026Leading Index     —     —0.10%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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