A modest sell-off in long-end Treasuries has yields 2-3 bps higher, while S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% a little more than an hour ahead of the open.
Regarding trade, President Trump sent letters to the EU and Mexico threatening 30% tariffs effective August 1. For Mexico, it’s unclear whether goods covered under the existing USMCA trade deal would be exempt. There are no data releases today, but tomorrow’s June CPI report will be a focus item for markets. Both headline and core measures are expected to rebound to a 0.3% m/m rate after both came in at a softer 0.1% rate in May. On Thursday, June retail sales and weekly jobless claims data will be released.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 7/15/2025 | Empire Manufacturing | -9.1 | — | -16 |
| 7/15/2025 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 7/15/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 7/15/2025 | CPI YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.40% |
| 7/15/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.90% | — | 2.80% |
| 7/15/2025 | CPI Index NSA | 322.501 | — | 321.465 |
| 7/15/2025 | CPI Core Index SA | 327.819 | — | 326.854 |
| 7/15/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.40% |
| 7/15/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 1.50% |
| 7/16/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 9.40% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.60% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.70% | — | 3.00% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.70% |
| 7/16/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -13.2 |
| 7/16/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.20% |
| 7/16/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.00% | — | 0.10% |
| 7/16/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 77.40% | — | 77.40% |
| 7/16/2025 | Fed Releases Beige Book | |||
| 7/17/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.90% |
| 7/17/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.20% | — | -0.10% |
| 7/17/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.30% |
| 7/17/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | — | 0.40% |
| 7/17/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.00% |
| 7/17/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% |
| 7/17/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | 0.30% | — | 0.20% |
| 7/17/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | -0.90% |
| 7/17/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 1.70% |
| 7/17/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 234k | — | 227k |
| 7/17/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 235.50k |
| 7/17/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1965k | — | 1965k |
| 7/17/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | -1 | — | -4 |
| 7/17/2025 | Business Inventories | 0.00% | — | 0.00% |
| 7/17/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 33 | — | 32 |
| 7/17/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | -$7.8b |
| 7/17/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$14.2b |
| 7/18/2025 | Housing Starts | 1295k | — | 1256k |
| 7/18/2025 | Building Permits | 1387k | — | 1394k |
| 7/18/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | 3.10% | — | -9.80% |
| 7/18/2025 | Building Permits MoM | -0.50% | — | -2.00% |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 61.5 | — | 60.7 |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 63.8 | — | 64.8 |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 56 | — | 58.1 |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 5.00% | — | 5.00% |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.90% | — | 4.00% |
| 7/21/2025 | Leading Index | -0.20% | — | -0.10% |
