Core inflation came in below expectations in June, with core CPI rising 0.2% m/m (0.228% unrounded).
The rest of the report largely aligned with expectations, and the downside surprise in the core reading was primarily due to car prices and shelter costs. Core services excluding shelter, a category Fed leaders have monitored in the past, rose 0.4% m/m, the highest reading since February. There were signs of inflation in goods impacted by tariffs, including toys (+1.8%), furniture (+0.4%), and apparel (+0.4%), but these increases were not yet strong enough to significantly impact overall inflation readings. On a year-over-year basis, core CPI rose from 2.8% to 2.9%, as expected. In the initial reaction to the report, intermediate and long-end Treasuries are 2-4 basis points lower, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% approximately 30 minutes before the open.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 7/15/2025 | Empire Manufacturing | -9.2 | 5.5 | -16 |
| 7/15/2025 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.10% |
| 7/15/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| 7/15/2025 | CPI YoY | 2.60% | 2.70% | 2.40% |
| 7/15/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.90% | 2.90% | 2.80% |
| 7/15/2025 | CPI Index NSA | 322.513 | 322.561 | 321.465 |
| 7/15/2025 | CPI Core Index SA | 327.819 | 327.6 | 326.854 |
| 7/15/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 1.00% | 1.40% |
| 7/15/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.70% | 1.50% |
| 7/16/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 9.40% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.60% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.70% | — | 3.00% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.70% |
| 7/16/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -13.2 |
| 7/16/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.20% |
| 7/16/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.00% | — | 0.10% |
| 7/16/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 77.40% | — | 77.40% |
| 7/16/2025 | Fed Releases Beige Book | |||
| 7/17/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.90% |
| 7/17/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | — | -0.10% |
| 7/17/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.30% |
| 7/17/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | — | 0.40% |
| 7/17/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.00% |
| 7/17/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% |
| 7/17/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | 0.30% | — | 0.20% |
| 7/17/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.10% | — | -0.90% |
| 7/17/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 1.70% |
| 7/17/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 234k | — | 227k |
| 7/17/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 235.50k |
| 7/17/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1965k | — | 1965k |
| 7/17/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | -1 | — | -4 |
| 7/17/2025 | Business Inventories | 0.00% | — | 0.00% |
| 7/17/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 33 | — | 32 |
| 7/17/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | -$7.8b |
| 7/17/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$14.2b |
| 7/18/2025 | Housing Starts | 1295k | — | 1256k |
| 7/18/2025 | Building Permits | 1387k | — | 1394k |
| 7/18/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | 3.10% | — | -9.80% |
| 7/18/2025 | Building Permits MoM | -0.50% | — | -2.00% |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 61.5 | — | 60.7 |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 63.9 | — | 64.8 |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 56.9 | — | 58.1 |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 5.00% | — | 5.00% |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.90% | — | 4.00% |
| 7/21/2025 | Leading Index | -0.20% | — | -0.10% |
| 7/22/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -25 |
| 7/22/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -7 |
| 7/22/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -16 |
