Treasury yields are lower and flatter (1-3 basis points) following a softer read on wholesale inflation.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was unchanged in June for both headline and core readings versus expectations for 0.2% m/m increases, but it also came with upward revisions to the prior month. Within the data, firmer prices for finished core goods (+0.3%) were offset by a decline in services prices, particularly in the transportation/travel sector (-0.9%). The PPI components that feed into PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, were firmer/higher in June. In other data, the MBA mortgage applications index fell 10% last week, including a 12% decline in purchase applications and a 7% decline in refinance applications. The average 30-year conventional contract rate rose 5 bps from the prior week to 6.82% according to the MBA survey. Five different Fed leaders will speak at separate events today.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 7/16/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -10.00% | 9.40% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.10% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.10% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.10% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.50% | 2.30% | 2.60% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.70% | 2.60% | 3.00% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.50% | 2.70% |
| 7/16/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | -9.3 | -13.2 |
| 7/16/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.20% |
| 7/16/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.00% | — | 0.10% |
| 7/16/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 77.40% | — | 77.40% |
| 7/16/2025 | Fed Releases Beige Book | |||
| 7/17/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.90% |
| 7/17/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | — | -0.10% |
| 7/17/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.30% |
| 7/17/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | — | 0.40% |
| 7/17/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.00% |
| 7/17/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% |
| 7/17/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | 0.30% | — | 0.20% |
| 7/17/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.10% | — | -0.90% |
| 7/17/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 1.70% |
| 7/17/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 234k | — | 227k |
| 7/17/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 235.50k |
| 7/17/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1965k | — | 1965k |
| 7/17/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | -1 | — | -4 |
| 7/17/2025 | Business Inventories | 0.00% | — | 0.00% |
| 7/17/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 33 | — | 32 |
| 7/17/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | -$7.8b |
| 7/17/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$14.2b |
| 7/18/2025 | Housing Starts | 1295k | — | 1256k |
| 7/18/2025 | Building Permits | 1387k | — | 1394k |
| 7/18/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | 3.10% | — | -9.80% |
| 7/18/2025 | Building Permits MoM | -0.50% | — | -2.00% |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 61.5 | — | 60.7 |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 63.9 | — | 64.8 |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 56.9 | — | 58.1 |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 5.00% | — | 5.00% |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.90% | — | 4.00% |
| 7/21/2025 | Leading Index | -0.20% | — | -0.10% |
| 7/22/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -25 |
| 7/22/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -7 |
| 7/22/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -16 |
| 7/23/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -10.00% |
| 7/23/2025 | Existing Home Sales | 3.99m | — | 4.03m |
| 7/23/2025 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -0.90% | — | 0.80% |
