Treasury yields are holding 1-3 basis points higher following several data releases that point to a still-solid economy.
Retail sales rose 0.6% m/m in June vs. expectations of a more modest 0.1% increase, and the control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, was up 0.5% m/m (0.3% expected). In a separate report, import prices rose less than expected in June (0.1% m/m vs. 0.3% m/m), and excluding petroleum imports, prices were flat versus May. Lastly, initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 221,000, the lowest since early/mid-April, and continuing jobless claims essentially held steady from a downwardly revised level the prior week. There was some concern in late May and June that jobless claims were breaking through to a new, higher range that would suggest more material softening in the labor market, but this marks the fifth consecutive weekly decline in initial claims.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 7/17/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.10% | 0.60% | -0.90% |
| 7/17/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | 0.60% | -0.10% |
| 7/17/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | 0.50% | -0.30% |
| 7/17/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.40% |
| 7/17/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| 7/17/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.20% |
| 7/17/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | 0.40% | -0.20% | 0.20% |
| 7/17/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.00% | 0.50% | -0.90% |
| 7/17/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | 1.90% | 2.80% | 1.70% |
| 7/17/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 233k | 221k | 227k |
| 7/17/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | 229.50k | 235.50k |
| 7/17/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1965k | 1956k | 1965k |
| 7/17/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | -1 | 15.9 | -4 |
| 7/17/2025 | Business Inventories | 0.00% | — | 0.00% |
| 7/17/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 33 | — | 32 |
| 7/17/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | -$7.8b |
| 7/17/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$14.2b |
| 7/18/2025 | Housing Starts | 1298k | — | 1256k |
| 7/18/2025 | Building Permits | 1387k | — | 1394k |
| 7/18/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | 3.30% | — | -9.80% |
| 7/18/2025 | Building Permits MoM | -0.50% | — | -2.00% |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 61.5 | — | 60.7 |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 63.9 | — | 64.8 |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 56.9 | — | 58.1 |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 5.00% | — | 5.00% |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.90% | — | 4.00% |
| 7/21/2025 | Leading Index | -0.20% | — | -0.10% |
| 7/22/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -25 |
| 7/22/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -7 |
| 7/22/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -16 |
| 7/23/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -10.00% |
| 7/23/2025 | Existing Home Sales | 4.00m | — | 4.03m |
| 7/23/2025 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -0.70% | — | 0.80% |
| 7/24/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | -0.28 |
| 7/24/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 221k |
| 7/24/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 229.50k |
| 7/24/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1956k |
| 7/24/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 52.9 |
| 7/24/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 52.9 |
| 7/24/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 52.9 |
| 7/24/2025 | New Home Sales | 650k | — | 623k |
| 7/24/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | 4.30% | — | -13.70% |
| 7/24/2025 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -2 |
| 7/24/2025 | Building Permits | — | — | — |
| 7/24/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | — |
