Dovish comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller have Treasury yields down 2-3 basis points across the curve.
At separate venues over the last 14 hours, Waller made his case for a July rate cut due to his opinion that “the private sector is not doing as well as everybody thinks it is.” This is not the first time he has suggested that July should be in play for Fed easing, but most other FOMC members have voiced a more patient tone. In other news, the House of Representatives passed legislation to regulate stablecoins, the first significant cryptocurrency legislation to be approved by Congress. This included a bill prohibiting the Fed from issuing a digital currency. President Trump is expected to soon sign an executive order allowing 401(k) plans to offer investments in crypto and other alternative investments, including private equity.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 7/18/2025 | Housing Starts | 1300k | 1321k | 1256k |
| 7/18/2025 | Building Permits | 1387k | 1397k | 1394k |
| 7/18/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | 3.50% | 4.60% | -9.80% |
| 7/18/2025 | Building Permits MoM | -0.50% | 0.20% | -2.00% |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 61.5 | — | 60.7 |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 63.9 | — | 64.8 |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 56.9 | — | 58.1 |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 5.00% | — | 5.00% |
| 7/18/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.90% | — | 4.00% |
| 7/21/2025 | Leading Index | -0.20% | — | -0.10% |
| 7/22/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -25 |
| 7/22/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -7 |
| 7/22/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -16 |
| 7/23/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -10.00% |
| 7/23/2025 | Existing Home Sales | 4.00m | — | 4.03m |
| 7/23/2025 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -0.70% | — | 0.80% |
| 7/24/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 221k |
| 7/24/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | -0.28 |
| 7/24/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 229.50k |
| 7/24/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1956k |
| 7/24/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 52.9 |
| 7/24/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 52.9 |
| 7/24/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 52.9 |
| 7/24/2025 | New Home Sales | 650k | — | 623k |
| 7/24/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | 4.30% | — | -13.70% |
| 7/24/2025 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -2 |
| 7/24/2025 | Building Permits | — | — | 1397k |
| 7/24/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | 0.20% |
| 7/25/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | -10.00% | — | 16.40% |
| 7/25/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.00% | — | 0.50% |
| 7/25/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | 1.70% |
| 7/25/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.40% |
| 7/25/2025 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 3 |
| 7/25/2025 | Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey |
