The Treasury curve is steeper to start the day, with long-end yields up 3-6 basis points.
Treasury yields are modestly lower and flatter on the first trading day of Q3. Markets are now watching three near-term catalysts – tomorrow’s June jobs report, the July 9 expiration of the tariff pause, and the budget reconciliation bill in Congress. The latter is now in the hands of the House after the Senate passed its version, with GOP leaders attempting to wrangle support from fiscal hardliners. On the trade front, President Trump said yesterday that he was not considering extending the July 9 deadline and expressed doubt that a deal could be reached with Japan at this point. According to a Financial Times article, European Union leaders are toughening their stance on any deal reached with the U.S., including quickly lowering sectoral tariffs imposed by the White House (e.g., autos). On the data front, the ADP employment report showed private payrolls shedding 33,000 jobs in June, marking the first negative reading since July 2020. However, the market reaction has been somewhat muted, given that the ADP report has not been the best predictor of nonfarm payrolls in recent years.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 7/2/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 2.70% | 1.10% |
| 7/2/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | -1.60% | 47.00% |
| 7/2/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 98k | -33k | 37k |
| 7/3/2025 | Trade Balance | -$71.0b | — | -$61.6b |
| 7/3/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 110k | — | 139k |
| 7/3/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 102k | — | 140k |
| 7/3/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -3k | — | -8k |
| 7/3/2025 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | — | 135k |
| 7/3/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -95k |
| 7/3/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.30% | — | 4.20% |
| 7/3/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.50% | — | 62.40% |
| 7/3/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.80% |
| 7/3/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% |
| 7/3/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.80% | — | 3.90% |
| 7/3/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 |
| 7/3/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 241k | — | 236k |
| 7/3/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 245.00k |
| 7/3/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1962k | — | 1974k |
| 7/3/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 53.1 | — | 53.1 |
| 7/3/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 52.8 |
| 7/3/2025 | ISM Services Index | 50.7 | — | 49.9 |
| 7/3/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | 68.6 | — | 68.7 |
| 7/3/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 46.4 |
| 7/3/2025 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 50.7 |
| 7/3/2025 | Factory Orders | 8.10% | — | -3.70% |
| 7/3/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | 0.20% | — | -0.50% |
| 7/3/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 16.40% | — | 16.40% |
| 7/3/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | — | 0.50% |
| 7/3/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 1.70% | — | 1.70% |
| 7/3/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | — | 0.50% |
| 7/8/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 98.2 | — | 98.8 |
| 7/8/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.20% |
| 7/8/2025 | Consumer Credit | $13.000b | — | $17.873b |
| 7/9/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 2.70% |
| 7/9/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 0.10% |
| 7/9/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | -0.30% |
| 7/9/2025 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — |
