Treasury curve is lower by around 1 bps across the curve this morning.
The market continues to await clarity on tariffs as we approach the August 1st deadline. An overall calmness has settled over the equity markets, with investors focusing more on the US economy’s steady growth and strong corporate profits, rather than Trump’s threats of tariffs or firing Jerome Powell.
Economic releases for the day remain light, with the market looking towards housing data (MBA mortgage applications index and existing home sales) on Wednesday and jobless claims and new home sales on Thursday. Big Tech earnings are also expected later this weekend, with the first focus on Alphabet and Tesla on Wednesday.
Kirby Hart
Associate, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 7/22/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -25 |
| 7/22/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | -2 | — | -7 |
| 7/22/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | –16 |
| 7/23/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -10.00% |
| 7/23/2025 | Existing Home Sales | 4.00m | — | 4.03m |
| 7/23/2025 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -0.70% | — | 0.80% |
| 7/24/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 227k | — | 221k |
| 7/24/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -0.15 | — | -0.28 |
| 7/24/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 229.50k |
| 7/24/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1954k | — | 1956k |
| 7/24/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 52.5 | — | 52.9 |
| 7/24/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 53 | — | 52.9 |
| 7/24/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 52.8 | — | 52.9 |
| 7/24/2025 | New Home Sales | 650k | — | 623k |
| 7/24/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | 4.20% | — | -13.70% |
| 7/24/2025 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -1 | — | -2 |
| 7/24/2025 | Building Permits | — | — | 1397k |
| 7/24/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | 0.20% |
| 7/25/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | -10.50% | — | 16.40% |
| 7/25/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.10% | — | 0.50% |
| 7/25/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | — | 1.70% |
| 7/25/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | 0.40% |
| 7/25/2025 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 3 |
| 7/25/2025 | Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey | |||
| 7/28/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -12.7 |
| 7/29/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$98.0b | — | -$96.6b |
| 7/29/2025 | Advance Goods Imports MoM SA | — | — | 0.00% |
| 7/29/2025 | Advance Goods Exports MoM SA | — | — | -5.20% |
| 7/29/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | -0.30% |
| 7/29/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.30% |
| 7/29/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | -0.40% |
| 7/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | -0.31% |
| 7/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 3.42% |
| 7/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 2.72% |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 7769k |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.60% |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3293k |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.10% |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1601k |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.00% |
| 7/29/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 96 | — | 93 |
| 7/29/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 129.1 |
| 7/29/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 69 |
| 7/29/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -4.4 |
