Treasuries are little changed following a quiet summer overnight session.
Oil futures are up another 3% as news reports suggest broadening strikes by the US in Iran and no desire for talks from either side. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.64% this morning, approaching the 4.67% YTD high set on May 19 before the initial ceasefire was announced. Last week was another quiet one for mortgage activity as well. The MBA applications index rose a modest 1.9%, boosted by a 5.5% increase in new purchase applications. Refinance applications fell 2.4% as the average 30-year conventional contract rate rose to an 11-month high of 6.69%.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 7/22/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 1.90% | -2.70% | — |
| 7/23/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | 211k | — | 208k | — |
| 7/23/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 214.25k | — |
| 7/23/2026 | Continuing Claims | 1809k | — | 1805k | — |
| 7/23/2026 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | -0.1 | — |
| 7/23/2026 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 13 | — | 11 | — |
| 7/24/2026 | Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 7/24/2026 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 54.4 | — | 53.9 | — |
| 7/24/2026 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 51.5 | — | 51.2 | — |
| 7/24/2026 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 52.1 | — | 51.9 | — |
| 7/24/2026 | New Home Sales | 606k | — | 580k | — |
| 7/24/2026 | New Home Sales MoM | 4.60% | — | -7.30% | — |
| 7/24/2026 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 5 | — |
| 7/24/2026 | Building Permits | — | — | 1367k | — |
| 7/24/2026 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | -3.00% | — |
| 7/27/2026 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.30% | — | -4.50% | — |
| 7/27/2026 | Durables Ex Transportation | 1.00% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 7/27/2026 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 1.00% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 7/27/2026 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 7/27/2026 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | 0 | — |
| 7/28/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 16.500k | — |
| 7/28/2026 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$97.8b | — | -$105.8b | -$105.9b |
| 7/28/2026 | Advance Goods Imports MoM SA | — | — | 3.60% | 4.00% |
| 7/28/2026 | Advance Goods Exports MoM SA | — | — | -5.40% | -5.30% |
| 7/28/2026 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.60% | — |
| 7/28/2026 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 7/28/2026 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 7/28/2026 | S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | -0.04% | — |
| 7/28/2026 | S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 1.14% | — |
| 7/28/2026 | S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 0.85% | — |
| 7/28/2026 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | 4 | — |
| 7/28/2026 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -9 | — |
| 7/28/2026 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 92 | — | 91.2 | — |
| 7/28/2026 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 116.4 | — |
| 7/28/2026 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 74.4 | — |
| 7/28/2026 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | 2.9 | — |
| 7/29/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.90% | — |
| 7/29/2026 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 3.75% | — | 3.75% | — |
| 7/29/2026 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 3.50% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 7/29/2026 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 3.65% | — | 3.65% | — |
| 7/29/2026 | Fed Reverse Repo Rate | 3.50% | — | 3.50% | — |
