Treasury yields are modestly higher this morning after President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan last night.
Trump’s social media post stated that Japan’s tariff rate will be set at 15% and that Japan will invest $500 billion in the U.S. as part of the agreement. He also stated that Japan will open its market to imports of U.S. automobiles and certain agricultural products, such as rice. Separately, the European Union threatened 30% retaliatory tariffs on €100 billion of U.S. goods if no trade deal is reached by the White House’s August 1 deadline. On the data front, the MBA mortgage activity index rose 0.8% last week thanks to a 3.4% increase in new purchase applications. Refinance applications fell for a second consecutive week as the average 30-year conventional contract rate rose slightly to 6.84%, 23 basis points above the YTD low reached just before the Liberation Day tariff announcement. June existing home sales data will be released later this morning.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 7/23/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 0.80% | -10.00% |
| 7/23/2025 | Existing Home Sales | 4.00m | — | 4.03m |
| 7/23/2025 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -0.70% | — | 0.80% |
| 7/24/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 226k | — | 221k |
| 7/24/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -0.15 | — | -0.28 |
| 7/24/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 229.50k |
| 7/24/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1954k | — | 1956k |
| 7/24/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 52.7 | — | 52.9 |
| 7/24/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 53 | — | 52.9 |
| 7/24/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 52.8 | — | 52.9 |
| 7/24/2025 | New Home Sales | 650k | — | 623k |
| 7/24/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | 4.30% | — | -13.70% |
| 7/24/2025 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 0 | — | -2 |
| 7/24/2025 | Building Permits | 1397k | — | 1397k |
| 7/24/2025 | Building Permits MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.20% |
| 7/25/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | -10.50% | — | 16.40% |
| 7/25/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.10% | — | 0.50% |
| 7/25/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | — | 1.70% |
| 7/25/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | 0.40% |
| 7/25/2025 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 3 |
| 7/25/2025 | Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey | |||
| 7/28/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -12.7 |
| 7/29/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$98.0b | — | -$96.6b |
| 7/29/2025 | Advance Goods Imports MoM SA | — | — | 0.00% |
| 7/29/2025 | Advance Goods Exports MoM SA | — | — | -5.20% |
| 7/29/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | -0.30% |
| 7/29/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.30% |
| 7/29/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | -0.40% |
| 7/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | -0.31% |
| 7/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 3.42% |
| 7/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 2.72% |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 7769k |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.60% |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3293k |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.10% |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1601k |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.00% |
| 7/29/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 96 | — | 93 |
| 7/29/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 129.1 |
| 7/29/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 69 |
| 7/29/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -4.4 |
| 7/30/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.80% |
| 7/30/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 80k | — | -33k |
| 7/30/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.50% | — | -0.50% |
| 7/30/2025 | Personal Consumption | — | — | 0.50% |
| 7/30/2025 | GDP Price Index | — | — | 3.80% |
| 7/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | — | — | 3.50% |
| 7/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.00% | — | 1.80% |
| 7/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -0.30% |
| 7/30/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 4.50% | — | 4.50% |
| 7/30/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 4.25% | — | 4.25% |
| 7/30/2025 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | — | — | 4.40% |
| 7/30/2025 | Fed Reverse Repo Rate | — | — | 4.25% |
