Treasury yields are 4-5 basis points higher to start the day, with the 30-year bond yield approaching 5% again.
Trading volumes were light overnight with no major headlines driving activity. The European Central Bank held its benchmark rate unchanged, as expected, and highlighted forward uncertainty related to “trade disputes.” Regarding the latter, the Financial Times reports that the US and EU are closing in on a 15% tariff deal that would mirror the agreement reached earlier this week with Japan. On the data front, the labor market continues to display resilience, with initial jobless claims falling for a sixth consecutive week. Claims unexpectedly fell to 217,000 last week, and continuing jobless claims were little changed versus the prior week. It would further appear that the surge in claims in late May/early June was another head fake driven by seasonal factors (e.g., end of school year). Later this morning, preliminary PMI data from S&P will be released for manufacturing and services industries.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 7/24/2025 | Building Permits | 1397k | 1393k | 1397k |
| 7/24/2025 | Building Permits MoM | 0.00% | -0.10% | 0.20% |
| 7/24/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 226k | 217k | 221k |
| 7/24/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -0.15 | -0.1 | -0.28 |
| 7/24/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | 224.50k | 229.50k |
| 7/24/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1954k | 1955k | 1956k |
| 7/24/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 52.7 | — | 52.9 |
| 7/24/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 53 | — | 52.9 |
| 7/24/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 52.8 | — | 52.9 |
| 7/24/2025 | New Home Sales | 650k | — | 623k |
| 7/24/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | 4.30% | — | -13.70% |
| 7/24/2025 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 0 | — | -2 |
| 7/25/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | -10.50% | — | 16.40% |
| 7/25/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.10% | — | 0.50% |
| 7/25/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | — | 1.70% |
| 7/25/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | 0.40% |
| 7/25/2025 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 3 |
| 7/25/2025 | Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey | |||
| 7/28/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -12.7 |
| 7/29/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$98.0b | — | -$96.6b |
| 7/29/2025 | Advance Goods Imports MoM SA | — | — | 0.00% |
| 7/29/2025 | Advance Goods Exports MoM SA | — | — | -5.20% |
| 7/29/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | -0.30% |
| 7/29/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.30% |
| 7/29/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | -0.40% |
| 7/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | -0.31% |
| 7/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 3.42% |
| 7/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 2.72% |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 7769k |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.60% |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3293k |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.10% |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1601k |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.00% |
| 7/29/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 95.9 | — | 93 |
| 7/29/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 129.1 |
| 7/29/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 69 |
| 7/29/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -4.4 |
| 7/30/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.80% |
| 7/30/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 75k | — | -33k |
| 7/30/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.50% | — | -0.50% |
| 7/30/2025 | Personal Consumption | — | — | 0.50% |
| 7/30/2025 | GDP Price Index | — | — | 3.80% |
| 7/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | — | — | 3.50% |
| 7/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.00% | — | 1.80% |
| 7/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -0.30% |
| 7/30/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 4.50% | — | 4.50% |
| 7/30/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 4.25% | — | 4.25% |
| 7/30/2025 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | — | — | 4.40% |
| 7/30/2025 | Fed Reverse Repo Rate | — | — | 4.25% |
| 7/31/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -1.60% |
| 7/31/2025 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | -0.40% |
| 7/31/2025 | Personal Spending | 0.40% | — | -0.10% |
| 7/31/2025 | Real Personal Spending | — | — | -0.30% |
| 7/31/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 7/31/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.30% |
| 7/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% |
| 7/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.70% |
| 7/31/2025 | Employment Cost Index | 0.80% | — | 0.90% |
| 7/31/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 217k |
| 7/31/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 224.50k |
| 7/31/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1955k |
| 7/31/2025 | MNI Chicago PMI | — | — | 40.4 |
