Treasury yields are leaking higher on a sleepy summer Friday morning.
Business investment slowed in June, as expected, following a surprisingly strong May report. Headline durable goods orders slipped 9.3% last month, driven by a 52% decline in the volatile commercial aircraft orders category. Excluding aircraft, orders were slightly better than expected at 0.2% m/m. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, which are used as a proxy for business capital expenditures, fell 0.7% m/m versus expectations of a 0.1% gain. President Trump downplayed his contention with Fed Chair Powell during a tour of the central bank renovation project yesterday. While trading barbs with Powell during the visit, the President said there was “no tension” with the Fed chair. “To do that is a big move, and I just don’t think it’s necessary,” said Trump with regard to rumors of firing Powell.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 7/25/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | -10.70% | -9.30% | 16.40% |
| 7/25/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.50% |
| 7/25/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | -0.70% | 1.70% |
| 7/25/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.40% |
| 7/25/2025 | Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey | |||
| 7/25/2025 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 3 |
| 7/28/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -12.7 |
| 7/29/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$98.0b | — | -$96.6b |
| 7/29/2025 | Advance Goods Imports MoM SA | — | — | 0.00% |
| 7/29/2025 | Advance Goods Exports MoM SA | — | — | -5.20% |
| 7/29/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | -0.30% |
| 7/29/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.30% |
| 7/29/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | -0.40% |
| 7/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | -0.31% |
| 7/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 3.42% |
| 7/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 2.72% |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | 7350k | — | 7769k |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.60% |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3293k |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.10% |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1601k |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.00% |
| 7/29/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 95.9 | — | 93 |
| 7/29/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 129.1 |
| 7/29/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 69 |
| 7/29/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -4.4 |
| 7/30/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.80% |
| 7/30/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 80k | — | -33k |
| 7/30/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.50% | — | -0.50% |
| 7/30/2025 | Personal Consumption | — | — | 0.50% |
| 7/30/2025 | GDP Price Index | — | — | 3.80% |
| 7/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | — | — | 3.50% |
| 7/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.00% | — | 1.80% |
| 7/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -0.30% |
| 7/30/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 4.50% | — | 4.50% |
| 7/30/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 4.25% | — | 4.25% |
| 7/30/2025 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | — | — | 4.40% |
| 7/30/2025 | Fed Reverse Repo Rate | — | — | 4.25% |
| 7/31/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -1.60% |
| 7/31/2025 | Personal Income | 0.20% | — | -0.40% |
| 7/31/2025 | Personal Spending | 0.40% | — | -0.10% |
| 7/31/2025 | Real Personal Spending | — | — | -0.30% |
| 7/31/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 7/31/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.30% |
| 7/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% |
| 7/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.70% |
| 7/31/2025 | Employment Cost Index | 0.80% | — | 0.90% |
| 7/31/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 217k |
| 7/31/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 224.50k |
| 7/31/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1955k |
| 7/31/2025 | MNI Chicago PMI | — | — | 40.4 |
| 8/1/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 101k | — | 147k |
| 8/1/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 100k | — | 74k |
| 8/1/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | — | — | -7k |
| 8/1/2025 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | — | 150k |
| 8/1/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 16k |
| 8/1/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% |
| 8/1/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.80% | — | 3.70% |
| 8/1/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.2 |
| 8/1/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.20% | — | 4.10% |
| 8/1/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — | 62.30% |
| 8/1/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.70% |
| 8/1/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 49.5 |
| 8/1/2025 | ISM Manufacturing | 49.5 | — | 49 |
| 8/1/2025 | ISM Prices Paid | — | — | 69.7 |
| 8/1/2025 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 46.4 |
| 8/1/2025 | ISM Employment | — | — | 45 |
| 8/1/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.30% |
| 8/1/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | — | — | 61.8 |
| 8/1/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 66.8 |
| 8/1/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 58.6 |
| 8/1/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 4.40% |
| 8/1/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.60% |
| 8/1/2025 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.50m | — | 15.34m |
