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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

The perception of cooling tensions in the Middle East has oil futures down more than 6% this morning.

Equity and bond markets are also responding favorably, with S&P 500 futures up nearly 1% and Treasury yields 1-3 basis points lower across the curve. The big market focus for this week is Wednesday’s FOMC decision. Current pricing in fed funds futures implies a 33% chance of a rate hike, but reduced forward guidance under the new Warsh regime has made handicapping a little more challenging. In addition to the FOMC meeting, the first look at Q2 GDP will be released Thursday. The June personal income and spending report, which includes PCE inflation data, will also be released on Thursday.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
7/27/2026Durable Goods Orders1.80%0.30%-4.50%-4.00%
7/27/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.80%0.60%1.40%1.80%
7/27/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.70%0.90%1.40%1.90%
7/27/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.60%1.90%0.10%0.20%
7/27/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity2     —0     —
7/28/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —16.500k     —
7/28/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$100.0b     —-$105.8b-$105.9b
7/28/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —3.60%4.00%
7/28/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —-5.40%-5.30%
7/28/2026Retail Inventories MoM0.40%     —0.60%     —
7/28/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%     —0.10%     —
7/28/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM0.10%     —-0.10%     —
7/28/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA0.00%     —-0.04%     —
7/28/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA1.30%     —1.14%     —
7/28/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA1.00%     —0.85%     —
7/28/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index6     —4     —
7/28/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-9     —
7/28/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence92     —91.2     —
7/28/2026Conf. Board Present Situation117.5     —116.4     —
7/28/2026Conf. Board Expectations74.1     —74.4     —
7/28/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —2.9     —
7/29/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —1.90%     —
7/29/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —3.75%     —
7/29/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.50%     —
7/29/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.65%     —3.65%     —
7/29/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate3.50%     —3.50%     —
7/30/2026Personal Income0.30%     —0.70%     —
7/30/2026Personal Spending0.30%     —0.70%     —
7/30/2026Real Personal Spending0.40%     —0.30%     —
7/30/2026PCE Price Index MoM-0.10%     —0.40%     —
7/30/2026PCE Price Index YoY3.70%     —4.10%     —
7/30/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%     —0.30%     —
7/30/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.30%     —3.40%     —
7/30/2026Initial Jobless Claims200k     —187k     —
7/30/2026GDP Annualized QoQ2.10%     —2.10%     —
7/30/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —207.50k     —
7/30/2026Personal Consumption2.30%     —0.50%     —
7/30/2026Continuing Claims1800k     —1796k     —
7/30/2026GDP Price Index3.70%     —3.60%     —
7/30/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ3.50%     —4.40%     —
7/31/2026Employment Cost Index0.80%     —0.90%     —
7/31/2026MNI Chicago PMI56     —56.7     —
7/31/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment54     —54.4     —
7/31/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions54.7     —54.9     —
7/31/2026U. of Mich. Expectations53.6     —54     —
7/31/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.20%     —
7/31/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.30%     —
8/3/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —53.8     —
8/3/2026ISM Manufacturing54     —53.3     —
8/3/2026ISM Prices Paid     —     —73     —
8/3/2026ISM New Orders     —     —56     —
8/3/2026ISM Employment     —     —49.7     —
8/3/2026Construction Spending MoM     —     —0.10%     —
8/03/2026Omdia Total Vehicle Sales16.30m     —16.52m     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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