Treasury yields are modestly lower and flatter in quiet trading ahead of a busy economic data calendar over the next few days.
Later this morning, May home price data from S&P will be released, as well as the June JOLTS report. For the former, home prices fell in April for a second consecutive month on a seasonally adjusted basis, including price declines for 15 of the 20 cities representing the composite index. Today’s report is expected to show a third consecutive monthly decline overall for the index (-0.2%). On trade, Commerce Secretary Lutnick said that another 90-day extension of the current trade truce with China is likely as both countries are currently negotiating in Sweden.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 7/29/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$98.0b | -$86.0b | -$96.6b |
| 7/29/2025 | Advance Goods Imports MoM SA | — | -4.20% | 0.00% |
| 7/29/2025 | Advance Goods Exports MoM SA | — | -0.60% | -5.20% |
| 7/29/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.10% | 0.20% | -0.30% |
| 7/29/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% |
| 7/29/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.40% |
| 7/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | -0.20% | — | -0.31% |
| 7/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 2.91% | — | 3.42% |
| 7/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 2.72% |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | 7500k | — | 7769k |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.60% |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | 3262k | — | 3293k |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.10% |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | 1568k | — | 1601k |
| 7/29/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.00% |
| 7/29/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 96 | — | 93 |
| 7/29/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 129.1 |
| 7/29/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 69 |
| 7/29/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -4.4 |
| 7/30/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.80% |
| 7/30/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 75k | — | -33k |
| 7/30/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.50% | — | -0.50% |
| 7/30/2025 | Personal Consumption | 1.50% | — | 0.50% |
| 7/30/2025 | GDP Price Index | 2.20% | — | 3.80% |
| 7/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 2.30% | — | 3.50% |
| 7/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.20% | — | 1.80% |
| 7/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -2.80% | — | -0.30% |
| 7/30/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 4.50% | — | 4.50% |
| 7/30/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 4.25% | — | 4.25% |
| 7/30/2025 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 4.40% | — | 4.40% |
| 7/30/2025 | Fed Reverse Repo Rate | — | — | 4.25% |
| 7/31/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -1.60% |
| 7/31/2025 | Personal Income | 0.20% | — | -0.40% |
| 7/31/2025 | Personal Spending | 0.40% | — | -0.10% |
| 7/31/2025 | Real Personal Spending | 0.10% | — | -0.30% |
| 7/31/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 7/31/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.30% |
| 7/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% |
| 7/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.70% |
| 7/31/2025 | Employment Cost Index | 0.80% | — | 0.90% |
| 7/31/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 224k | — | 217k |
| 7/31/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 224.50k |
| 7/31/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1953k | — | 1955k |
| 7/31/2025 | MNI Chicago PMI | 42 | — | 40.4 |
| 8/1/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 107k | — | 147k |
| 8/1/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 100k | — | 74k |
| 8/1/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 0k | — | -7k |
| 8/1/2025 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | — | 150k |
| 8/1/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 16k |
| 8/1/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% |
| 8/1/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.80% | — | 3.70% |
| 8/1/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | — | 34.2 |
| 8/1/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.20% | — | 4.10% |
| 8/1/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.30% | — | 62.30% |
| 8/1/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.70% |
| 8/1/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 49.5 | — | 49.5 |
| 8/1/2025 | ISM Manufacturing | 49.5 | — | 49 |
| 8/1/2025 | ISM Prices Paid | 70 | — | 69.7 |
| 8/1/2025 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 46.4 |
| 8/1/2025 | ISM Employment | — | — | 45 |
| 8/1/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.00% | — | -0.30% |
| 8/1/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 61.9 | — | 61.8 |
| 8/1/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 66.8 |
| 8/1/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 58.6 |
| 8/1/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.40% | — | 4.40% |
| 8/1/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.60% | — | 3.60% |
| 8/1/2025 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.00m | — | 15.34m |
| 8/4/2025 | Factory Orders | -5.10% | — | 8.20% |
| 8/4/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.20% |
| 8/4/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | -9.30% |
| 8/4/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.20% |
| 8/4/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.70% |
| 8/4/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.40% |
| 8/5/2025 | Trade Balance | -$75.0b | — | -$71.5b |
| 8/5/2025 | Exports MoM | — | — | -4.00% |
| 8/5/2025 | Imports MoM | — | — | -0.10% |
| 8/5/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 55.2 |
| 8/5/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.6 |
| 8/5/2025 | ISM Services Index | 51.3 | — | 50.8 |
| 8/5/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 67.5 |
| 8/5/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 51.3 |
| 8/5/2025 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 47.2 |
