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Author Jason Haley

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Oil prices bounced higher overnight on reports of renewed attacks in the Middle East.

The U.S. said Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles targeting American forces, and Saudi Arabia joined the fray attacking Iran-backed militias in Iraq. Treasury yields are modestly higher this morning as investors balance high oil prices with greater uncertainty heading into today’s FOMC decision. There is an unusual amount of ambiguity about what the Fed will do today, at least relative to the post-GFC era of heavy Fed guidance prior to the Kevin Warsh regime.

Warsh has made a concerted effort in his early days as Fed chair to limit forward guidance. As a result, markets are still pricing a 33% chance of rate hike today. Usually, the Fed would have tipped its cap so close to the announcement time. The renewed tensions with Iran don’t make the decision any easier for Fed leaders, but one thing Warsh has been clear about it is a strong will to bring price stability after 5 years of above-target inflation.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
7/29/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-6.40%1.90%     —
7/29/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —3.75%     —
7/29/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.50%     —
7/29/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.65%     —3.65%     —
7/29/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate3.50%     —3.50%     —
7/30/2026Personal Income0.30%     —0.70%     —
7/30/2026Personal Spending0.40%     —0.70%     —
7/30/2026Real Personal Spending0.40%     —0.30%     —
7/30/2026PCE Price Index MoM-0.10%     —0.40%     —
7/30/2026PCE Price Index YoY3.70%     —4.10%     —
7/30/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%     —0.30%     —
7/30/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.30%     —3.40%     —
7/30/2026Initial Jobless Claims200k     —187k     —
7/30/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —207.50k     —
7/30/2026Continuing Claims1795k     —1796k     —
7/30/2026GDP Annualized QoQ2.00%     —2.10%     —
7/30/2026Personal Consumption2.30%     —0.50%     —
7/30/2026GDP Price Index4.00%     —3.60%     —
7/30/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ3.50%     —4.40%     —
7/31/2026Employment Cost Index0.80%     —0.90%     —
7/31/2026MNI Chicago PMI56     —56.7     —
7/31/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment54     —54.4     —
7/31/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions54.7     —54.9     —
7/31/2026U. of Mich. Expectations53.8     —54     —
7/31/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.30%     —4.20%     —
7/31/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.30%     —
8/3/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —53.8     —
8/3/2026ISM Manufacturing54     —53.3     —
8/3/2026ISM Prices Paid     —     —73     —
8/3/2026ISM New Orders     —     —56     —
8/3/2026ISM Employment     —     —49.7     —
8/3/2026Construction Spending MoM     —     —0.10%     —
8/03/2026Omdia Total Vehicle Sales16.30m     —16.52m     —
8/4/2026Trade Balance-$71.0b     —-$77.6b     —
8/4/2026Imports MoM     —     —3.30%     —
8/4/2026Exports MoM     —     —-3.20%     —
8/4/2026Factory Orders     —     —-1.30%     —
8/4/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —1.90%     —
8/4/2026JOLTS Job Openings     —     —7594k     —
8/4/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.60%     —
8/4/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3065k     —
8/4/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —1.90%     —
8/4/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1708k     —
8/4/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%     —
8/4/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —0.30%     —
8/4/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.60%     —
8/4/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.90%     —
8/4/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.90%     —
8/5/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-6.40%     —
8/5/2026ADP Employment Change75k     —98k     —
8/5/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —53.6     —
8/5/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —53.6     —
8/5/2026ISM Services Index54.3     —54     —
8/5/2026ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —67.7     —
8/5/2026ISM Services New Orders     —     —55.1     —
8/5/2026ISM Services Employment     —     —51.2     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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