Nonfarm payrolls added 147,000 jobs in June, 41,000 more than expected, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell 10 basis points (bps) to 4.1%.
Essentially half of the job gains came from the government sector, with private payrolls adding just 74,000 jobs (least since October 2024). Within the government sector, all the gains came from state and local (federal -7k). For the private sector, most of the jobs added came from healthcare (+59k), which has been fairly steady at that level of job gains for multiple months. The decline in the unemployment rate was driven by a 93,000 increase in household employment and a 130,000 decline in the official labor force. From a policy perspective, this report should close the door on any hopes of a July Fed rate cut given the decline in the unemployment rate alone. As such, front-end Treasury yields are up 10 bps in the immediate reaction, while long-end yields are up 5 bps. In other positive labor market news, initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 233,000 last week, and continuing claims held steady at 1.964 million.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 7/3/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 106k | 147k | 139k | 144k |
| 7/3/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 100k | 74k | 140k | 137k |
| 7/3/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -2k | -7k | -8k | -7k |
| 7/3/2025 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | 150k | 135k | 141k |
| 7/3/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | 16k | -95k | — |
| 7/3/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.30% | 4.10% | 4.20% | — |
| 7/3/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.40% | 62.30% | 62.40% | — |
| 7/3/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | 7.70% | 7.80% | — |
| 7/3/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.40% | — |
| 7/3/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.80% | 3.70% | 3.90% | 3.80% |
| 7/3/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | 34.2 | 34.3 | — |
| 7/3/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 241k | 233k | 236k | 237k |
| 7/3/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | 241.50k | 245.00k | 245.25k |
| 7/3/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1962k | 1964k | 1974k | 1964k |
| 7/3/2025 | Trade Balance | -$71.0b | -$71.5b | -$61.6b | -$60.3b |
| 7/3/2025 | Exports MoM | — | -4.00% | 3.00% | 3.40% |
| 7/3/2025 | Imports MoM | — | -0.10% | -16.30% | — |
| 7/3/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 53.1 | — | 53.1 | — |
| 7/3/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 52.8 | — | 52.8 | — |
| 7/3/2025 | ISM Services Index | 50.6 | — | 49.9 | — |
| 7/3/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | 68.9 | — | 68.7 | — |
| 7/3/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | 48.2 | — | 46.4 | — |
| 7/3/2025 | ISM Services Employment | 49.5 | — | 50.7 | — |
| 7/3/2025 | Factory Orders | 8.20% | — | -3.70% | — |
| 7/3/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | 0.20% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 7/3/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 16.40% | — | 16.40% | — |
| 7/3/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 7/3/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 1.70% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 7/3/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
