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Author Hafizan Hamzah

Published

Estimated

The curve continues to steepen following yesterday’s FOMC meeting.

The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury currently sits at 43 bps, an 11-bps increase from the 28th. Traders sold long-dated bonds in a rebuke to Fed Chairman Warsh, signaling that the market doesn’t think he’ll act quickly enough to fight inflation. Front-end yields fell as the market pared back expectations of near-term rate increases, while long-end yields rose on expectations of higher inflation going forward.

US GDP rose by 1.5% in the second quarter, falling short of expectations. The Bloomberg median forecast called for a 2.0% increase. Consumer spending, roughly two-thirds of GDP, rose by 3.2% (beating expectations) but was offset by a decline in net exports.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
7/30/2026Personal Income0.30%0.20%0.70%     —
7/30/2026Personal Spending0.40%0.30%0.70%0.90%
7/30/2026Real Personal Spending0.40%0.40%0.30%0.40%
7/30/2026PCE Price Index MoM-0.10%-0.10%0.40%0.50%
7/30/2026PCE Price Index YoY3.70%3.70%4.10%     —
7/30/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%0.10%0.30%     —
7/30/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.30%3.30%3.40%     —
7/30/2026Initial Jobless Claims200k197k187k188k
7/30/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —202.75k207.50k207.75k
7/30/2026Continuing Claims1795k1782k1796k1789k
7/30/2026GDP Annualized QoQ2.00%1.50%2.10%     —
7/30/2026Personal Consumption2.30%3.20%0.50%     —
7/30/2026GDP Price Index4.00%6.20%3.60%     —
7/30/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ3.50%3.40%4.40%     —
7/31/2026Employment Cost Index0.80%     —0.90%     —
7/31/2026MNI Chicago PMI56     —56.7     —
7/31/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment54     —54.4     —
7/31/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions54.7     —54.9     —
7/31/2026U. of Mich. Expectations53.8     —54     —
7/31/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.30%     —4.20%     —
7/31/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.30%     —
8/3/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —53.8     —
8/3/2026ISM Manufacturing54     —53.3     —
8/3/2026ISM Prices Paid     —     —73     —
8/3/2026ISM New Orders     —     —56     —
8/3/2026ISM Employment     —     —49.7     —
8/3/2026Construction Spending MoM     —     —0.10%     —
8/03/2026Omdia Total Vehicle Sales16.30m     —16.52m     —
8/4/2026Trade Balance-$71.0b     —-$77.6b     —
8/4/2026Imports MoM     —     —3.30%     —
8/4/2026Exports MoM     —     —-3.20%     —
8/4/2026Factory Orders     —     —-1.30%     —
8/4/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —1.90%     —
8/4/2026JOLTS Job Openings     —     —7594k     —
8/4/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.60%     —
8/4/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3065k     —
8/4/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —1.90%     —
8/4/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1708k     —
8/4/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%     —
8/4/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —0.30%     —
8/4/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.60%     —
8/4/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.90%     —
8/4/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.90%     —
8/5/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-6.40%     —
8/5/2026ADP Employment Change75k     —98k     —
8/5/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —53.6     —
8/5/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —53.6     —
8/5/2026ISM Services Index54.3     —54     —
8/5/2026ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —67.7     —
8/5/2026ISM Services New Orders     —     —55.1     —
8/5/2026ISM Services Employment     —     —51.2     —
8/6/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-4.50%     —
8/6/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —45849     —
8/6/2026Nonfarm Productivity     —     —0.30%     —
8/6/2026Unit Labor Costs     —     —1.80%     —
8/6/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —197k     —
8/6/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —202.75k     —
8/6/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1782k     —
8/6/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.30%     —
8/6/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —3.40%     —

Hafizan Hamzah

Senior Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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