Treasury yields are a few basis points lower on the front end of the curve to start the week. Trading volumes were relatively light overnight (probably a few tired traders in London!). Equity futures are point to a higher open this morning, led by the tech sector (Nasdaq 100 +1.25%). June PMI data for the services sector will be released later this morning, and the calendar for the rest of the week is relatively light. A few Fed leaders will speak this week (Waller, Williams, & Logan) at separate events. There is still some speculation that the FOMC might consider moving forward with a rate hike on July 29, but in fed funds futures, the implied probability of a 25-basis point hike remains relatively low at 24%. For the September 16 meeting, the probability of a hike rises to 56%. 4-7 bps in the initial reaction to the report.
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised 7/6/2026 S&P Global US Services PMI 51.3 — 51.3 — 7/6/2026 S&P Global US Composite PMI 52.2 — 52.2 — 7/6/2026 ISM Services Index 54 — 54.5 — 7/6/2026 ISM Services Prices Paid 67.5 — 71.3 — 7/6/2026 ISM Services New Orders 56.8 — 57.3 — 7/6/2026 ISM Services Employment 48.2 — 47.9 — 7/7/2026 ADP Weekly Employment Change — — 30.750k — 7/7/2026 Trade Balance -$78.5b — -$55.9b — 7/7/2026 Imports MoM 2.10% — 2.00% — 7/7/2026 Exports MoM -3.50% — 2.60% — 7/7/2026 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations — — 3.46% — 7/8/2026 MBA Mortgage Applications — — 0.00% — 7/8/2026 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.30% — 0.30% — 7/8/2026 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM — — 2.00% — 7/8/2026 FOMC Meeting Minutes — — — 0 7/8/2026 Consumer Credit $17.500b — $20.733b — 7/9/2026 Initial Jobless Claims 218k — 215k — 7/9/2026 Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg — — 222.00k — 7/9/2026 Continuing Claims 1815k — 1814k — 7/9/2026 Existing Home Sales 4.20m — 4.17m — 7/9/2026 Existing Home Sales MoM 1.00% — 3.20% — 7/13/2026 Federal Budget Balance — — -$292.6b —
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
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