Treasury yields are leaking modestly higher following a quiet overnight session.
There were no major headlines or data releases, both overseas and domestically, keeping trading activity relatively subdued. President Trump unleashed chaos in the metals market yesterday when he announced a 50% tariff on copper imports to go along with the same rate of levies on steel and aluminum announced previously. However, analysts warn that the U.S. doesn’t have nearly enough capacity to mine, smelt, and refine copper to become self-sufficient. Copper futures surged as much as 17% yesterday, a record one-day spike, and both market participants and copper users await more details from the White House on any exceptions or grace periods before implementation. Later today the minutes of the June 18 FOMC meeting will be released.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 7/9/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 9.40% | 2.70% |
| 7/9/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.30% | — | -0.30% |
| 7/9/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
| 7/9/2025 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — |
| 7/10/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 235k | — | 233k |
| 7/10/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 241.50k |
| 7/10/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1965k | — | 1964k |
| 7/11/2025 | Federal Budget Balance | -$37.0b | — | -$316.0b |
| 7/15/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 1.50% |
| 7/15/2025 | Empire Manufacturing | -10 | — | -16 |
| 7/15/2025 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 7/15/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 7/15/2025 | CPI YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.40% |
| 7/15/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.00% | — | 2.80% |
| 7/15/2025 | CPI Index NSA | 322.566 | — | 321.465 |
| 7/15/2025 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 326.854 |
| 7/15/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.40% |
| 7/16/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 9.40% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | 0.10% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | — | — | 2.60% |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 3.00% |
| 7/16/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -13.2 |
| 7/16/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.70% |
| 7/16/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.20% |
| 7/16/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 77.40% | — | 77.40% |
| 7/16/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | — | — | 0.10% |
| 7/16/2025 | Fed Releases Beige Book |
