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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are modestly lower and flatter following softer wage and jobs data out of the U.K. on an otherwise quiet morning.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 3 points to 98.8 in May, versus expectations of a 96.0 reading. According to the NFIB, the increase was mostly attributable to improved expectations for future business conditions and improved sales expectations, but the uncertainty measure of the index rose another 2 points last month. This afternoon, the government will issue $58 billion of 3-year Treasury notes.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/10/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism9698.895.8     —
6/11/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-3.90%     —
6/11/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.40%1.50%
6/11/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.70%1.80%
6/11/2025CPI MoM0.20%     —0.20%     —
6/11/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
6/11/2025CPI YoY2.50%     —2.30%     —
6/11/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.90%     —2.80%     —
6/11/2025CPI Index NSA321.732     —320.795     —
6/11/2025CPI Core Index SA327.319     —326.43     —
6/11/2025Federal Budget Balance-$314.5b     —$258.4b     —
6/12/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —-0.50%     —
6/12/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —-0.40%     —
6/12/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%     —-0.10%     —
6/12/2025PPI Final Demand YoY2.60%     —2.40%     —
6/12/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.10%     —3.10%     —
6/12/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —2.90%     —
6/12/2025Initial Jobless Claims242k     —247k     —
6/12/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —235.00k     —
6/12/2025Continuing Claims1910k     —1904k     —
6/12/2025Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$164b     —
6/13/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment53.6     —52.2     —
6/13/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions58.8     —58.9     —
6/13/2025U. of Mich. Expectations49     —47.9     —
6/13/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation6.40%     —6.60%     —
6/13/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation4.20%     —4.20%     —
6/16/2025Empire Manufacturing-5     —-9.2     —
6/17/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM0.00%     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas     —     —0.20%     —
6/17/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025Import Price Index MoM     —     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.30%     —-0.20%     —
6/17/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.40%     —
6/17/2025Import Price Index YoY     —     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025Export Price Index MoM     —     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025Export Price Index YoY     —     —2.00%     —
6/17/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-16.2     —
6/17/2025Industrial Production MoM0.10%     —0.00%     —
6/17/2025Capacity Utilization77.70%     —77.70%     —
6/17/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production     —     —-0.40%     —
6/17/2025Business Inventories0.00%     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —34     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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