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Author Kirby Hart

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Estimated

The US-Iran situation has escalated sharply since yesterday’s de-escalation talk.

The US launched new strikes against Iran after Trump said Tehran shot down an American military helicopter patrolling the Strait of Hormuz, with a US official saying the Apache was hit by an Iranian drone. News of the retaliation led to a sell-off in equity indices yesterday afternoon. The risk-off tone appears set to continue into this morning, as equity futures point to lower opens.

CPI rose 0.5% in May, lifting the annual rate to 4.2%, the highest in three years and up from 3.8% in April, both figures roughly in line with consensus. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% from April and 2.09% YoY. The energy-fueled jump in the CPI is a headline-catcher, but the rest of the report showed softer results, with transportation services, new vehicles, and health insurance prices falling. Treasury yields are relatively flat across the curve following the CPI release.

Kirby Hart
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/10/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —10.80%-2.50%     —
6/10/2026CPI MoM0.50%0.50%0.60%     —
6/10/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%0.20%0.40%     —
6/10/2026CPI YoY4.20%4.20%3.80%     —
6/10/2026Core CPI YoY2.90%2.90%2.80%     —
6/10/2026CPI Index NSA335.143335.12333.02     —
6/10/2026Core CPI Index SA336.298336.12335.42     —
6/10/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —-0.70%-0.30%     —
6/10/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —-0.40%-0.20%     —
6/10/2026Federal Budget Balance-$283.1b     —$215.0b     —
6/11/2026Initial Jobless Claims220k     —225k     —
6/11/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —214.75k     —
6/11/2026Continuing Claims1785k     —1777k     —
6/11/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.70%     —1.40%     —
6/11/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%     —1.00%     —
6/11/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.40%     —0.60%     —
6/11/2026PPI Final Demand YoY6.40%     —6.00%     —
6/11/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.40%     —5.20%     —
6/11/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY4.80%     —4.40%     —
6/11/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$2173b     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment46     —44.8     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions46     —45.8     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. Expectations44.7     —44.1     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.90%     —4.80%     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.90%     —3.90%     —
6/15/2026Empire Manufacturing     —     —19.6     —
6/15/2026Industrial Production MoM0.20%     —0.70%     —
6/15/2026Manufacturing Production MoM     —     —0.60%     —
6/15/2026Capacity Utilization76.20%     —76.10%     —
6/15/2026NAHB Housing Market Index37     —37     —
6/16/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —29.000k     —
6/16/2026Import Price Index MoM     —     —1.90%     —
6/16/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.70%     —
6/16/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —4.20%     —
6/16/2026Export Price Index MoM     —     —3.30%     —
6/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-5.8     —
6/16/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —8.80%     —
6/16/2026Housing Starts1415k     —1465k     —
6/16/2026Housing Starts MoM-1.70%     —-2.80%     —
6/16/2026Building Permits     —     —1423k     —
6/16/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —4.40%     —
6/17/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —10.80%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%     —0.50%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%     —0.70%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%     —0.50%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Control Group     —     —0.50%     —
6/17/2026Business Inventories     —     —0.90%     —
6/17/2026Pending Home Sales MoM     —     —1.40%     —
6/17/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —3.30%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —3.75%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.50%     —
6/17/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.65%     —3.65%     —
6/17/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate3.50%     —3.50%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr3.63%     —3.38%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.63%     —3.13%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs3.38%     —3.13%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run3.13%     —3.13%     —

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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