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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Front-end Treasury yields are 6-7 basis points lower following the release of a softer than expected May CPI report.

The headline index rose 0.1% m/m versus expectations of a 0.2% increase, and the core index also rose 0.1% m/m (0.13% unrounded) versus expectations of a 0.3% increase. The report showed little goods inflation related to tariffs to this point, along with declines in several services categories, including new and used vehicles (-0.3% and -0.5%), and airfares (-2.7%). Rent/housing inflation was also softer relative to the prior month. The quick takeaway is that the impact of tariffs doesn’t appear to be showing up materially in the data yet, and the pre-tariffs premise of disinflation in services is perhaps clearer now.

In other big news, President Trump posted on social media this morning that a new trade framework with China is done after marathon negotiations in London this week, subject to final approval by President Xi of China and himself. Trump’s post said the agreement includes the supply of rare earth minerals by China and access to American universities for Chinese students. Regarding the rate of tariffs, the President stated that the U.S. will impose a 55% tariff rate on China, while China will impose a 10% rate on U.S. goods. More details should emerge in the coming hours/days. Treasury yields were initially higher this morning after Trump’s announcement before reversing course following the CPI report.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/11/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —12.50%-3.90%     —
6/11/2025CPI MoM0.20%0.10%0.20%     —
6/11/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.10%0.20%     —
6/11/2025CPI YoY2.40%2.40%2.30%     —
6/11/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.90%2.80%2.80%     —
6/11/2025CPI Index NSA321.732321.465320.795     —
6/11/2025CPI Core Index SA327.319326.854326.43     —
6/11/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —1.40%1.40%1.50%
6/11/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —1.50%1.70%1.80%
6/11/2025Federal Budget Balance-$314.0b     —-$347.1b     —
6/12/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —-0.50%     —
6/12/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —-0.40%     —
6/12/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%     —-0.10%     —
6/12/2025PPI Final Demand YoY2.60%     —2.40%     —
6/12/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.10%     —3.10%     —
6/12/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY3.00%     —2.90%     —
6/12/2025Initial Jobless Claims242k     —247k     —
6/12/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —235.00k     —
6/12/2025Continuing Claims1910k     —1904k     —
6/12/2025Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$164b     —
6/13/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment53.6     —52.2     —
6/13/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions59.2     —58.9     —
6/13/2025U. of Mich. Expectations50     —47.9     —
6/13/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation6.40%     —6.60%     —
6/13/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation4.10%     —4.20%     —
6/16/2025Empire Manufacturing-8     —-9.2     —
6/17/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.60%     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%     —0.20%     —
6/17/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025Import Price Index MoM     —     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.50%     —-0.20%     —
6/17/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.40%     —
6/17/2025Import Price Index YoY     —     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025Export Price Index MoM     —     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025Export Price Index YoY     —     —2.00%     —
6/17/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-16.2     —
6/17/2025Industrial Production MoM0.10%     —0.00%     —
6/17/2025Capacity Utilization77.70%     —77.70%     —
6/17/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production     —     —-0.40%     —
6/17/2025Business Inventories0.00%     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —34     —
6/18/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —12.50%     —
6/18/2025Housing Starts1360k     —1361k     —
6/18/2025Building Permits1430k     —1422k     —
6/18/2025Housing Starts MoM-0.10%     —1.60%     —
6/18/2025Building Permits MoM0.30%     —-4.00%     —
6/18/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —     —     —
6/18/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —     —
6/18/2025Continuing Claims     —     —     —     —
6/18/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.50%     —4.50%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)4.25%     —4.25%     —
6/18/2025Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate     —     —4.40%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr     —     —3.88%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr     —     —3.38%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs     —     —3.13%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run     —     —3.00%     —
6/18/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$161.8b     —
6/18/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$254.3b     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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