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Author Kirby Hart

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are lower by 1-2 bps across the curve this morning.

The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in three years. This comes on the back of elevated energy costs, which are fueling inflation in the region. Europe is more susceptible to higher energy costs from the war in the Middle East and has pushed it to be an early mover in raising interest rates. In the Middle East, headlines show tensions have still not come down in the last day. Trump said this morning they will continue attacking Iran tonight with the goal of seizing the Kharg Island, Iran’s oil hub, “in the not too distant future.” Oil has turned higher after the news of Trump’s threats to seize this island. Brent futures sit at $93.7 per barrel. Equity futures are still holding in the morning and all point to a positive opening. The market is trying to shake off the sell-off seen since last Friday.

Kirby Hart
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/11/2026Initial Jobless Claims220k229k225k     —
6/11/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —219.00k214.75k     —
6/11/2026Continuing Claims1785k1795k1777k1771k
6/11/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.70%1.10%1.40%1.10%
6/11/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.40%1.00%0.70%
6/11/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.40%0.80%0.60%0.50%
6/11/2026PPI Final Demand YoY6.40%6.50%6.00%5.70%
6/11/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.40%4.90%5.20%4.90%
6/11/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY4.80%5.10%4.40%     —
6/11/2026Household Change in Net Worth     —     —$2173b     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment46     —44.8     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions46     —45.8     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. Expectations44.7     —44.1     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.90%     —4.80%     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.90%     —3.90%     —
6/15/2026Empire Manufacturing     —     —19.6     —
6/15/2026Industrial Production MoM0.20%     —0.70%     —
6/15/2026Manufacturing Production MoM0.30%     —0.60%     —
6/15/2026Capacity Utilization76.20%     —76.10%     —
6/15/2026NAHB Housing Market Index37     —37     —
6/16/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —29.000k     —
6/16/2026Import Price Index MoM     —     —1.90%     —
6/16/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.70%     —
6/16/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —4.20%     —
6/16/2026Export Price Index MoM     —     —3.30%     —
6/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-5.8     —
6/16/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —8.80%     —
6/16/2026Housing Starts1440k     —1465k     —
6/16/2026Housing Starts MoM-1.70%     —-2.80%     —
6/16/2026Building Permits1403k     —1423k     —
6/16/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —4.40%     —
6/17/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —10.80%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%     —0.50%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%     —0.70%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%     —0.50%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Control Group     —     —0.50%     —
6/17/2026Business Inventories     —     —0.90%     —
6/17/2026Pending Home Sales MoM     —     —1.40%     —
6/17/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —3.30%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —3.75%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.50%     —
6/17/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.65%     —3.65%     —
6/17/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate3.50%     —3.50%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr3.63%     —3.38%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.63%     —3.13%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs3.38%     —3.13%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run3.13%     —3.13%     —
6/18/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —229k     —
6/18/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —219.00k     —
6/18/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook     —     —-0.4     —
6/18/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1795k     —
6/18/2026Leading Index     —     —0.10%     —
6/18/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$150.7b     —
6/18/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$81.3b     —

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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