May CPI came in softer than expected, sending yields sharply lower as the market bets on more accommodative Fed policy.
The yield on the 2-year Treasury fell 12 bps to 4.71% while the 10-year Treasury rallied 11 bps to 4.30%.
Headline CPI came in flat m/m vs +0.1% expected and is up 3.3% y/y vs 3.4% expected. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, came in +0.2% vs +0.3% expected m/m and was up 3.4% y/y. In an interview with Bloomberg TV, former Fed official James Bullard mentioned that today’s CPI release was good but that the Fed will want to see a few more months of positive data before making a move.
Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 06/12/24 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 15.60% | -5.20% | — |
| 06/12/24 | CPI MoM | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.30% | — |
| 06/12/24 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.30% | — |
| 06/12/24 | CPI YoY | 3.40% | 3.30% | 3.40% | — |
| 06/12/24 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.50% | 3.40% | 3.60% | — |
| 06/12/24 | CPI Index NSA | 314.365 | 314.069 | 313.548 | — |
| 06/12/24 | CPI Core Index SA | 318.502 | 318.14 | 317.622 | — |
| 06/12/24 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.80% | 0.50% | — |
| 06/12/24 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.60% |
| 06/12/24 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$276.5b | — | -$240.3b | — |
| 06/12/24 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 5.50% | — | 5.50% | — |
| 06/12/24 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 5.25% | — | 5.25% | — |
| 06/12/24 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 5.40% | — | 5.40% | — |
| 06/12/24 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr | 4.88% | — | 4.63% | — |
| 06/12/24 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr | 4.13% | — | 3.88% | — |
| 06/12/24 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs | 3.13% | — | 3.13% | — |
| 06/12/24 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run | 2.75% | — | 2.56% | — |
| 06/13/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 229k | — |
| 06/13/24 | Continuing Claims | 1795k | — | 1792k | — |
| 06/13/24 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 06/13/24 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 06/13/24 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 06/13/24 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 06/13/24 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 06/13/24 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.10% | — |
| 06/14/24 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 06/14/24 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 06/14/24 | Import Price Index YoY | 1.30% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 06/14/24 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 06/14/24 | Export Price Index YoY | 0.60% | — | -1.00% | — |
| 06/14/24 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 72 | — | 69.1 | — |
| 06/14/24 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 72.2 | — | 69.6 | — |
| 06/14/24 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 72 | — | 68.8 | — |
| 06/14/24 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.20% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 06/14/24 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
