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Author Kirby Hart

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are lower by 1-2 bps across the curve this morning, following yesterday afternoon’s rally in rates.

The 10-year Treasury finished down 9 bps yesterday at 4.46% after President Trump announced he canceled the planned strikes on Iran and said a deal to end the war will be signed soon. This was also a catalyst for the stock market, as oil dropped to its lowest level since mid-April. This isn’t the first time it has appeared close to a resolution in the Middle East, so investors will try not to get ahead of themselves. Equity futures currently point to a soft positive open, with S&P futures signaling a 0.21% open. Most market discussion today will surround the SpaceX IPO, which is expected to become eligible to trade around 10 am ET.

Kirby Hart
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/12/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment46     —44.8     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions46.1     —45.8     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. Expectations44.9     —44.1     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.90%     —4.80%     —
6/12/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.80%     —3.90%     —
6/15/2026Empire Manufacturing12.5     —19.6     —
6/15/2026Industrial Production MoM0.20%     —0.70%     —
6/15/2026Manufacturing Production MoM0.30%     —0.60%     —
6/15/2026Capacity Utilization76.20%     —76.10%     —
6/15/2026NAHB Housing Market Index36     —37     —
6/16/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —29.000k     —
6/16/2026Import Price Index MoM     —     —1.90%     —
6/16/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.70%     —
6/16/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —4.20%     —
6/16/2026Export Price Index MoM     —     —3.30%     —
6/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-5.8     —
6/16/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —8.80%     —
6/16/2026Housing Starts1430k     —1465k     —
6/16/2026Housing Starts MoM-2.20%     —-2.80%     —
6/16/2026Building Permits1428k     —1423k     —
6/16/2026Building Permits MoM-0.20%     —4.40%     —
6/17/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —10.80%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%     —0.50%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%     —0.70%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.50%     —
6/17/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —0.50%     —
6/17/2026Business Inventories0.50%     —0.90%     —
6/17/2026Pending Home Sales MoM     —     —1.40%     —
6/17/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —3.30%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —3.75%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.50%     —
6/17/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.65%     —3.65%     —
6/17/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate3.50%     —3.50%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr3.63%     —3.38%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.38%     —3.13%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs3.13%     —3.13%     —
6/17/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run3.13%     —3.13%     —
6/18/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —229k     —
6/18/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —219.00k     —
6/18/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook12     —-0.4     —
6/18/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1795k     —
6/18/2026Leading Index     —     —0.10%     —
6/18/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$150.7b     —
6/18/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$81.3b     —

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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