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Author Michael Oravetz

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After a volatile trading session yesterday, rates are rallying again Thursday morning. 

Despite the latest dot plot only suggesting one 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate this year, traders are now pricing in twice that number. In his press conference yesterday afternoon, Jerome Powell maintained a similar message, saying “the most recent inflation readings have been more favorable than earlier in the year, however…we’ll need to see more data to bolster our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2%”. The typically policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury note is down nearly 20 bps this week alone.

Headline data this morning surrounded U.S. jobless claims and PPI. Initial jobless claims rose 13,000, totaling 242,000, which is the highest level in 9 months. Following consumer data that suggested broad cooling, producer prices dipped unexpectedly as well, lead by a sharp decline in energy costs. The 0.2% decline in PPI is the largest drop in 7 months.

Michael Oravetz
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/13/2024Initial Jobless Claims225k242k229k—
6/13/2024Continuing Claims1795k1820k1792k1790k
6/13/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%-0.20%0.50%—
6/13/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.00%0.50%—
6/13/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%0.00%0.40%0.50%
6/13/2024PPI Final Demand YoY2.50%2.20%2.20%2.30%
6/13/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.50%2.30%2.40%2.50%
6/13/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY—3.20%3.10%3.20%
6/14/2024Import Price Index MoM-0.10%—0.90%—
6/14/2024Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%—0.70%—
6/14/2024Import Price Index YoY1.30%—1.10%—
6/14/2024Export Price Index MoM0.10%—0.50%—
6/14/2024Export Price Index YoY0.60%—-1.00%—
6/14/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment72—69.1—
6/14/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions72.2—69.6—
6/14/2024U. of Mich. Expectations72—68.8—
6/14/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.20%—3.30%—
6/14/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%—3.00%—
Michael Oravetz

Michael Oravetz

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