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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

A broad risk-off tone emerged in financial markets overnight in response to Israel’s attack on Iran last night.

As it stands this morning, S&P 500 futures are down nearly 1% an hour before the open, but Treasury yields are actually slightly higher versus yesterday’s close after an initial rally overnight. Perhaps the most impacted market, oil futures are currently up 8% as investors worry about a more prolonged conflict. Later this morning, the preliminary results of the June University of Michigan survey will be released, which is expected to show modest improvement in consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/13/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment53.6     —52.2     —
6/13/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions59.3     —58.9     —
6/13/2025U. of Mich. Expectations49.7     —47.9     —
6/13/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation6.40%     —6.60%     —
6/13/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation4.10%     —4.20%     —
6/16/2025Empire Manufacturing-7     —-9.2     —
6/17/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.70%     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%     —0.20%     —
6/17/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.30%     —-0.20%     —
6/17/2025Import Price Index MoM-0.30%     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.40%     —
6/17/2025Import Price Index YoY     —     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025Export Price Index MoM-0.20%     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025Export Price Index YoY     —     —2.00%     —
6/17/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-16.2     —
6/17/2025Industrial Production MoM0.00%     —0.00%     —
6/17/2025Capacity Utilization77.70%     —77.70%     —
6/17/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.20%     —-0.40%     —
6/17/2025Business Inventories0.00%     —0.10%     —
6/17/2025NAHB Housing Market Index36     —34     —
6/18/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —12.50%     —
6/18/2025Housing Starts1360k     —1361k     —
6/18/2025Building Permits1430k     —1422k     —
6/18/2025Housing Starts MoM-0.10%     —1.60%     —
6/18/2025Building Permits MoM0.60%     —-4.00%     —
6/18/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —248k     —
6/18/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —240.25k     —
6/18/2025Continuing Claims     —     —1956k     —
6/18/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.50%     —4.50%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)4.25%     —4.25%     —
6/18/2025Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate     —     —4.40%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr3.88%     —3.88%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.38%     —3.38%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs3.13%     —3.13%     —
6/18/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run3.13%     —3.00%     —
6/18/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$161.8b     —
6/18/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$254.3b     —
6/20/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook0     —-4     —
6/20/2025Leading Index-0.10%     —-1.00%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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